Categories
Data Update

Massachusetts Data Update November 21, 2020

There are signs that the upward trajectory on test positivity is leveling off or even decreasing – unfortunately, with Thanksgiving less than a week away, I’m afraid this won’t last. We’ll get a much better handle on the situation in roughly two weeks or so, after the impacts from Thanksgiving start to show in the test and case data.

 

Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics
7 Day  Trailing Average
November 21, 2020
         
Testing Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals)   9.9% 10.9% 5.9%
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected)   10.7% 11.5% 6.2%
         
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests)   3.2% 3.4% 1.7%
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested)   9.9% 10.9% 5.9%
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers)   0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
Percentage Repeat Testers   72.1% 72.7% 75.4%
         
Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed)   0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed)   5.1% 5.4% 3.0%
Percentage Higher Ed Testers   40.7% 39.6% 44.9%
         
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week)   21,557 20,323 15,238
Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   31,232 32,324 29,483
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   78,851 77,038 62,869

 

Almost all measures of test positivity are better or no worse than one week ago, with the exception of higher education testing, for which positivity rates are marginally higher than one week ago. But higher education results are still better than any other category.  One other item to note: assuming statewide records are accurate, about 45% of the Massachusetts population has now been tested at least once for coronavirus.  Because of widespread higher education testing, the total number tested in Massachusetts (over 3 million) may include out-of-state college students, which would inflate the numbers somewhat.

 

Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 21, 2020
         
Hospitalization Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Confirmed  Patients Hospitalized   850 641 347
Confirmed  Patients in ICU   171 149 70
Confirmed  Patients Intubed   75 68 31
         
New Confirmed Admissions (17-Nov)
  105
80
41
Net New Confirmed Patients   27 24 8
Net New ICU Patients   5 3 3
Net New Intubated Patients   2 2 1
         
 Percent ICU / Hospitalized   20% 23% 20%
 Percent Intubated / ICU   44% 46% 45%

 

I’ve added back a line to the Table outlining hospitalization statistics – New Confirmed Admissions.  After dropping this from the daily dashboard report, the state recently added it back to the weekly public health report.  It is only updated weekly, so I’ve included the as-of-date of November 17 in the report.  This also means that the figures for 7 days ago are as of November 10, and the figures for four weeks ago are as of October 20. 

Since hospitalizations lag cases (and case numbers are still increasing), it isn’t surprising that hospitalizations are continuing to increase, but the rate of increase might be slowing down. Still, the 7 day average of Covid patients in the hospital are up one-third from one week ago, but ICU patient are up less than 15%, and intubated patients are up about 10%.  Newly admitted patients increased by slightly more than 30%.

 

Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 21, 2020
         
Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Total Deaths Including Suspected   28 24 17
Total  Deaths Confirmed Only   27 23 16
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases)   14 13 8
Percent from Long-Term Care   48% 53% 51%
         
Total Cases Including Suspected   2573 2367 939
Total Confirmed Cases   2409 2219 874

 

Cases are continuing to rise despite the leveling off of positivity rates, but at a slower rate than before – the 7 day average of confirmed cases is up only about 9% over the past week.  However, the state reported 2,991 confirmed cases on November 21, the second highest number of confirmed cases ever reported (the highest was on April 23), and 3,206 confirmed and suspected cases, the highest total yet. However, on April 23rd the 7 day average positivity rate for newly tested individuals was 24% compared to 10%.  There were also over 3800 patients in the hospital on April 23rd.

And, not surprisingly, deaths are also rising (it is now more than two months since the case increases started after Labor Day), with a 65% increase in the 7 day average rate compared to four weeks ago.  However, now about half of deaths are in long-term care facilities, compared to about 70% for most of the pandemic.   

Categories
Community Testing

Massachusetts Community Spread Update November 14, 2020

This is another update that breaks down case and testing statistics by city and town in Massachusetts based on data published in the state’s weekly public health report. In the original community spread post https://www.masscoronavirus.net/community-spread-in-massachusetts-september-26-2020/ I outlined some of the issues with the community data in the weekly report, and described my methodology for calculating how a particular city and town has contributed to the change in either case incident rates or test positivity rates in the state.

 

Table 1: Highest Case Incidence Rates and Contribution to Case Incidence Increase
Period Ending November 14, 2020
               
Highest Case Incidence Rates   Largest Contributors to Weekly Case Incidence Increase
               
City/Town 14 Day Case Count Daily Case Rate per 100,000   City/Town 14 Day Case Count Daily Case Rate per 100,000 % Contribution
               
Norfolk 204 116.6   Boston 3058 31.5 9.7%
Lawrence 1328 108.1   Worcester 1014 37.8 4.9%
Fall River 1078 86.2   Lowell 1044 64.2 4.2%
Tisbury 49 83.9   Springfield 1117 51.1 4.1%
Marion 50 77.7   Lawrence 1328 108.1 3.7%
Shirley 85 71.2   Fall River 1078 86.2 3.5%
Chelsea 358 69.3   Lynn 869 61.6 2.7%
Swansea 147 65.8   Cambridge 273 17.4 1.6%
Everett 443 65.2   New Bedford 548 39.2 1.5%
Lowell 1044 64.2   Peabody 289 36.9 1.4%
               
Total/State 28660 29.4   Total/State 28660 29.4 37.4%

 

Statewide case incidence rates have more than tripled from four weeks ago when I wrote my last update, highlighting the rapid spread of covid throughout Massachusetts during that time.  The list of communities with the highest incidence rates is varied:

(1) relatively small towns such as Tisbury and Marion,

(2) previously identified hotspots such as Lawrence and Lowell,

(3) and communities with large institutional complexes such as the prisons at Norfolk and Shirley. The state has stopped putting asterisks on those communities in the weekly report – a notational change it started several weeks prior.

Overall, only 31 of the 351 communities in the Commonwealth had no cases in the two weeks ending November 14, and only 34 communities have seen a decrease in cases from the previous report.  The largest community with no cases is Provincetown, population about 2,600. 

95% of the state’s population lives in communities which would have been labeled as red zone under the original labeling  guidelines that were relaxed last month.  This is up from 71% just two weeks ago. I noted this labeling change and calculated its impact in a post about two weeks ago (https://www.masscoronavirus.net/massachusetts-reporting-change-november-6-2020/ ). 

As I’ve indicated in prior posts, the communities having the largest impact on the week over week increase in the statewide incidence rate tend to be either very large (e.g., Boston), have had large increases in cases (almost all), or both.  The smallest community on the list is Peabody, population of about 56,000.  Note that only Cambridge has a incidence rate below the statewide average.

 

Table 2: Highest Positivity  Rates and Contribution to Positivity Rate Increase
Period Ending October 17, 2020
               
Highest Test Positivity Rate   Largest Contributers to Weekly Positivity Rate Increase
               
City/Town 14 Day Test Count Test Positivity Rate (%)   City/Town 14 Day Test Count Test Positivity Rate (%) Relative Impact (%)
               
Lawrence 13,003 13.0%   Boston 205,995 1.7% 8.8%
Shirley 817 11.3%   Worcester 46,820 2.4% 4.7%
Tolland 9 11.1%   Lowell 13,408 8.8% 4.7%
Fall River 11,807 10.9%   Springfield 19,188 7.1% 4.1%
Norfolk 2,077 10.0%   Fall River 11,807 10.9% 3.7%
Westport 1,434 9.3%   Lawrence 13,003 13.0% 3.5%
Lynn 11,253 9.1%   Lynn 11,253 9.1% 3.0%
Swansea 1,893 8.9%   Cambridge 50,947 0.6% 1.6%
Lowell 13,408 8.8%   Peabody 6,740 4.8% 1.5%
Somerset 1,938 8.6%   Everett 6,368 8.3% 1.5%
               
State 1,088,469 3.0%   Total/State 1,088,489 3.0% 37.2%

 

Table 2 focuses on testing statistics throughout the state.  The communities with the highest positivity rates for the last two weeks are similar to those with the highest case incidence rates, since raw testing figures tend to correlate highly with population (95% correlation for testing over the past two weeks).  The one notable exception is Tolland, which had 1 positive case and 9 tests, resulting in a positivity rate of 11.1%.

The ten communities with the largest impact on the statewide positivity rate increase are the same as the communities with the largest impact on the statewide case incidence increase with one exception – Everett has replaced New Bedford. But Everett was 11th on the case incidence list, and 10th here, so this is not a big change.

 

 

Categories
Data Update

Massachusetts Data Update November 17,2020

Are the testing and case metrics beginning to level off in Massachusetts? Test positivity for newly tested individuals was 10.9% today, and has been between 10.8% and 11.1% for the past five days. Unfortunately, this type of holding pattern happened once before recently, when the newly tested positivity rate held at 6.6% and 6.7% for seven consecutive days near the end of October and the beginning of November. It is way to soon to draw any conclusions, especially with Thanksgiving coming up. This test positivity holding pattern seems to be in place not only for newly tested individuals, but for repeat testers (0.5% and 0.6% rate for twelve days), and higher education testers (0.3% rate for eight days) as well.

 

Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics
7 Day  Trailing Average
November 17, 2020
         
Testing Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals)   10.9% 9.6% 4.8%
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected)   11.7% 10.0% 5.1%
         
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests)   3.2% 2.9% 1.4%
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested)   10.9% 9.6% 4.8%
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers)   0.6% 0.5% 0.3%
Percentage Repeat Testers   73.9% 73.1% 76.2%
         
Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed)   0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed)   5.3% 4.8% 2.6%
Percentage Higher Ed Testers   41.2% 41.1% 47.3%
         
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week)   21,047 18,132 15,762
Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   32,178 31,656 26,558
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   78,315 72,384 59,644

 

Of course, hospitalizations lag cases, and the Covid patient count continues to accelerate, with over 30 net new patients added to the Massachusetts hospital rosters each day on average over the past week (versus about 20 net new patients daily over the prior week).  In the short run, ICU and intubated patient counts are leveling off, as are the ratios of ICU to total Covid patients, and intubated patients to ICU patients.

 

Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 17, 2020
         
Hospitalization Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Confirmed  Patients Hospitalized   724 546 322
Confirmed  Patients in ICU   155 129 60
Confirmed  Patients Intubed   71 61 26
         
Net New Confirmed Patients   31 19 3
Net New ICU Patients   1 8 1
Net New Intubated Patients   1 2 1
         
 Percent ICU / Hospitalized   21% 24% 19%
 Percent Intubated / ICU   46% 47% 43%

 

Confirmed reported cases have topped 2000 for seven of eight days now – the only day under 2000 was yesterday (and the data released on Monday tends to have light totals reflecting cases reported on Sunday).  The number of reported cases have leveled off somewhat, reflecting the short-term leveling off of test positivity rates.  Deaths are slowly increasing, reflecting the increases in cases from several weeks back.

 

Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 17, 2020
         
Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Total Deaths Including Suspected   25 21 18
Total  Deaths Confirmed Only   25 21 18
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases)   16 9 12
Percent from Long-Term Care   61% 44% 66%
         
Total Cases Including Suspected   2583 1899 724
Total Confirmed Cases   2400 1810 676

 

Categories
Age Analysis

Age Analysis Update November 7, 2020

This post is an update to the series of posts made about one month ago analyzing the distribution of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by age cohort. As I noted then, the state has made it quite difficult to perform this analysis for two primary reasons:

(1) Age-related information is only published weekly, but on a rolling two-week basis (the state stopped providing daily information on August 11). Because the age-related information covers two weeks, weekly figures must be estimated.

(2) The published totals  in the weekly reports do not align with those for the corresponding period in the daily reports.

To circumvent these issues, I developed a methodology outlined in a prior post (https://www.masscoronavirus.net/massachusetts-covid-breakdown-by-age-part-i-methodology/) to estimate the age distributions through time.  I’m using the same methodology to extend the analysis through November 7th for cases and deaths. 

I had been relying on hospitalization data published as part of the race / ethnicity daily reports to calibrate the weekly age-based hospitalization data – which tended to severely under count hospitalizations compared to the daily reports.  However, the race / ethnicity report was dropped on November 2nd.  I am working on an approach to estimate age-related hospitalizations, but won’t include it in this post.

As most everyone is aware, cases have increased dramatically since the beginning of October – almost tripling in the five weeks between October 3 and November 7.  Obviously, case incidence rates are significantly higher than previously, as Figure 1 indicates. 

As has been true since the end of July, case incidence rates have been higher for those under 60 compared to those over 60 – ranging from about 50% higher to more than double each week since the beginning of August. This case incidence rate differential appears to be generally holding, even as cases skyrocket.

This is evident from Figure 2, which shows the percentage of cases by age cohort over time. These percentages have held roughly steady since the end of July – with about 85% of cases in people under 60, and 15% of cases in people 60 and over. (This may seem very high for those under 60, but keep in mind that they represent 77% of the population in the state). In the past several weeks, there might be a slight trend to higher relative rates among those 60 and older, but it is difficult to determine whether this is just a normal fluctuation in the data or the start of a trend.

Unlike cases, which have increased significantly since October 3, deaths have increased modestly – up 37% to November 7th. This is positive news, but since deaths lag case diagnosis by at least several weeks, there is no guarantee this trend will continue. We can certainly hope that improved treatment protocols and the younger age of patients will keep deaths somewhat in check.

Figure 3 shows the death incidence rate by age cohort through November 7. Even though the death totals haven’t climbed as much as cases since October 3, the bulk of the increase is born by those 60 and older, as Figure 3 makes apparent. This is because over 90% of deaths are in the 60 and older population, and this percentage has been roughly the same for months.

Figure 4, which shows the percentage of deaths by age cohort, makes this clear. Although it is a bit difficult to see in the Figure, over the past five weeks the percentage of deaths in those 60 and older rose slightly – to 93% from about 91% in the five weeks prior.

Categories
Data Update

Massachusetts Data Update November 14, 2020

No surprises, although Massachusetts did hit several negative milestones in the past several days – test positivity rates of 10% for those newly tested, test positivity rates of 5% outside of higher education, and an overall test positivity rate of 3%. The total number of tests continues to increase, but slowly, and the percentage of first-time testers remains about 25%.

 

Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics
7 Day  Trailing Average
November 14, 2020
         
Testing Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals)   10.5% 8.4% 4.5%
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected)   11.3% 8.9% 4.7%
         
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests)   3.1% 2.6% 1.3%
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested)   10.5% 8.4% 4.5%
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers)   0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Percentage Repeat Testers   74.3% 73.6% 75.7%
         
Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed)   0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed)   5.2% 4.3% 2.4%
Percentage Higher Ed Testers   43.1% 42.1% 46.9%
         
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week)   20,250 17,630 17,146
Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   32,323 30,730 30,228
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   76,715 70,172 65,510

 

Hospitalization statistics are back to where they were in early to mid-July, but of course the numbers were headed down then, and they are now headed up.  Unfortunately, total hospitalizations are increasing at a faster clip – Massachusetts’ hospitals added almost 170 patients in the last 7 days compared to just under 100 in the 7 days prior to that.  It also appears that patients are a bit more ill than they were four weeks ago, as the percentage of hospitalized patients in the ICU, and percentage of ICU patients who are intubated are higher than they were.

 

Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 14, 2020
         
Hospitalization Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Confirmed  Patients Hospitalized   641 491 319
Confirmed  Patients in ICU   149 107 59
Confirmed  Patients Intubed   68 54 24
         
Net New Confirmed Patients   24 14 (3)
Net New ICU Patients   3 5 (0)
Net New Intubated Patients   2 2 0
         
 Percent ICU / Hospitalized   23% 22% 19%
 Percent Intubated / ICU   46% 50% 40%

 

A higher test positivity rate naturally leads to more cases – we’ve had over 2000 reported confirmed cases each day this week.  That number may drop Sunday and Monday, as reporting tends to slow down over the weekend.  The 7 day average of reported deaths, which had been somewhat held in check, hit 24 today for the first time since July 2.   On July 2nd, 70% of those deaths were in long-term care facilities compared to 53% today, which implies that healthier people are dying now.

 

Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 14, 2020
         
Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Total Deaths Including Suspected   24 20 19
Total  Deaths Confirmed Only   23 20 19
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases)   13 10 13
Percent from Long-Term Care   53% 51% 67%
         
Total Cases Including Suspected   2367 1573 657
Total Confirmed Cases   2219 1488 615

 

Categories
Data Update

Massachusetts Data Update November 10, 2020

Nothing good to report today. Test and case positivity rates are still increasing, and at a faster rate than before. No matter which measure of positivity at which one looks, the rate is double or triple what it was four weeks ago. The one exception is for repeat testers, for which the rate is approximately 50% higher, based on 7 day trailing averages. Test positivity is even increasing in higher education (albeit from a very low level), which had been the standout for quite some time. Keep in mind that there is a very large overlap between repeat testers and higher education testers.  Most people tested in higher education have been tested multiple times.

 

Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics
7 Day  Trailing Average
November 10, 2020
         
Testing Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals)   8.8% 6.7% 3.8%
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected)   9.3% 7.3% 4.0%
         
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests)   2.6% 2.0% 1.2%
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested)   8.8% 6.7% 3.8%
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers)   0.5% 0.4% 0.3%
Percentage Repeat Testers   74.1% 74.9% 73.5%
         
Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed)   0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed)   4.4% 3.5% 2.2%
Percentage Higher Ed Testers   42.9% 43.8% 44.6%
         
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week)   18,148 17,241 16,034
Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   31,656 30,996 30,121
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   72,199 69,356 61,768

 

And of course, hospitalizations are rising too, and almost as fast as positivity rates. The 7 day trailing average number of ICU patients has more than doubled from four weeks ago, and the number of intubated patients has almost tripled.  Hospitals in the state added almost 20 patients per day over the past week  (this is not new admissions, but net new admissions including discharges and deaths).

 

Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 10, 2020
         
Hospitalization Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Confirmed  Patients Hospitalized   546 432 317
Confirmed  Patients in ICU   129 85 60
Confirmed  Patients Intubed   61 46 22
         
Net New Confirmed Patients   19 12 5
Net New ICU Patients   8 2 1
Net New Intubated Patients   2 1 0
         
 Percent ICU / Hospitalized   24% 20% 19%
 Percent Intubated / ICU   47% 54% 37%

 

The only slightly positive news is that deaths haven’t dramatically begun to increase (and given better treatment options this might be the case going forward). The 7 day average of reported deaths had stayed under 20 per day from mid-July until October 22 (over three months), but it hasn’t moved much higher since then (let’s keep our fingers crossed). Cases are skyrocketing of course, with the 7 day average tripling since four weeks ago.

 

Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 10, 2020
         
Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Total Deaths Including Suspected   21 21 13
Total  Deaths Confirmed Only   21 21 13
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases)   9 12 8
Percent from Long-Term Care   44% 58% 64%
         
Total Cases Including Suspected   1899 1222 638
Total Confirmed Cases   1810 1135 601

 

Categories
Data Update Methodology

Massachusetts Reporting Change November 6, 2020

Charlie’s done it again. It is becoming increasingly clear that one way to fight the pandemic in Massachusetts is to move the goalposts if the numbers are worsening.  (This is a variant of the idea that if you pretend there is no coronavirus, then there is no coronavirus.  Here’s looking at you, lame duck president). 

That can be done in several ways. First, stop reporting a measure if it doesn’t look as good as it did previously. For example: drop suspected cases from the count of patients in the hospital, in the ICU, or intubated. That way, you can make the increase in the number of hospitalizations look smaller.  Or hide statistics on the test positivity rate based on individuals, not tests.

Here’s another idea: change the way a particular statistic is measured to make things look better. The latest example: the color coding system used to define risk levels across communities in the state. The state has redefined the four risk-level color codes (red, yellow, green, and grey) so that it is much more difficult for a community to fall into the red (riskiest) zone, even as cases and test positivity increase rapidly.

Table 1 is a comparison of the community level data through October 31 (the latest data available) showing the difference between the old and new coding systems.

 

Table 1: Comparison of Old and New Community Color Coding
City and Town Data Two Weeks Ending October 31,2020
         
Measure Red Yellow Green Grey
         
Old Coding % of State Population
71% 21% 3% 5%
New Coding % of State Population
15% 47% 28% 11%
         
Old Coding Number of Cities/Towns 155 67 9 120
New Coding Number of Cities/Towns 16 91 79 165

 

For example,  71% of the state’s population would be living in cities or towns coded at the highest risk level) if the state were still reporting using the old system.  This is 155 out of the 351 cities and towns in the Commonwealth.  But redefine the color codes, and presto, only 15% of the population in 16 cities and towns are in the red zone.  Under the old criteria, only 8% of the population is now living in cities and towns classified as green or grey (the lowest risk level).  But under the new system, 37% of the population lives in those low-risk communities.

We get it Charlie –  you want to get students back into the classroom.  But why not make your case with consistent measures of community risk over time? And while I’m at it, the travel restrictions are a joke.  Only travelers from other states with case rates of fewer than 10 cases per 100,000 people per day are exempt from a 14 day quarantine on arrival in Massachusetts (not that anybody is taking this seriously anyway). This is from a state that has a case rate of over 15 cases per 100,000 people per day.  Huh?

Categories
Data Update

Massachusetts Data Update November 6,2020

This is the last post for this blog.  As many of you know, after election day, Covid disappeared. So there were no new cases, no new hospitalizations, and no new Covid deaths in Massachusetts today, nor will there be any going forward. There is no point in continuing this blog.

Just kidding of course. Unfortunately, the coronavirus news in Massachusetts is not good, and is continuing to get worse. The test positivity rate for newly tested individuals reached 7% today after being between 6% and 7% for twelve consecutive days. I’d been hoping we were at a plateau. No such luck. Positivity rates for higher education, which had been 0.1% throughout September and October, ticked up to 0.2%.  The number of tests each day continues to increase slightly, but the large increase in confirmed cases is not from increased testing, but from higher positivity.

Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics
7 Day  Trailing Average
November 6, 2020
         
Testing Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals)   7.1% 6.6% 3.6%
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected)   7.7% 7.0% 3.8%
         
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests)   2.1% 2.0% 1.1%
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested)   7.1% 6.6% 3.6%
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers)   0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Percentage Repeat Testers   74.9% 74.8% 73.8%
         
Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed)   0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed)   3.8% 3.4% 2.1%
Percentage Higher Ed Testers   46.3% 43.9% 47.2%
         
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week)   17,761 16,607 15,917
Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   30,928 31,007 29,017
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   70,443 67,973 59,133

 

As test positivity and cases rise, hospitalizations follow.   The 7 day average count of hospitalized patients, patients in the ICU, and intubated patients all increased by almost 25% or more in one week.  Particularly disturbing is that over 50% of patients in the ICU are intubated, the highest rate since early September.

 

Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 6, 2020
         
Hospitalization Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Confirmed  Patients Hospitalized   477 387 285
Confirmed  Patients in ICU   101 79 55
Confirmed  Patients Intubed   52 40 21
         
Net New Confirmed Patients   15 6 8
Net New ICU Patients   5 0 1
Net New Intubated Patients   2 1 0
         
 Percent ICU / Hospitalized   21% 21% 19%
 Percent Intubated / ICU   51% 50% 38%

 

Over 2000 new cases were reported today, and the 7 day average of new confirmed cases topped 1300, the highest amount since mid-May.  Deaths are holding steady.  It is unclear whether this is because of the lag from diagnosis to death, or because the current batch of covid patients is healthier compared to the spring. 

 

Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 6, 2020
         
Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Total Deaths Including Suspected   19 21 12
Total  Deaths Confirmed Only   19 20 12
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases)   9 12 12
Percent from Long-Term Care   50% 56% 93%
         
Total Cases Including Suspected   1448 1269 581
Total Confirmed Cases   1358 1191 542

 

Categories
Data Update

Massachusetts Data Update November 3, 2020

Happy Election Day. I’ve had some time to digest the new dashboard from Massachusetts and the file download that accompanies it. I’m disappointed in the changes to the dashboard, but it isn’t as bad as it looked at first glance. However, it seems to me that the state still is trying to highlight statistics that paint the pandemic in Massachusetts in a more positive light, as I noted yesterday.

First, new individuals tested and their test positivity rate are not shown on the dashboard (this is what I reacted to yesterday). The newly-tested positivity rate is significantly higher than the positivity rate for repeat testers and about 75% of all tests currently are for repeat testers. However the testing information for new testers is still in the data download, if not on the dashboard itself.

The second significant change is to the hospital reporting. The state now only reports confirmed covid hospitalized patients, ICU patients, and intubated patients. This led to a fairly sizeable drop (almost 30%) in the overall patient count based on October 31st data.  Presumably, the suspected case patients are still in the hospital, regardless of whether they are counted by the state in the official tally.  However, the state did provide a backhistory of these confirmed hospitalization statistics, so it is possible to compare these data over time.  In addition, the state dropped the ‘New Daily Admissions Report’ altogether.  I had used this in my data updates, and have a less than satisfactory replacement.

In general, the state’s reporting of hospitalizations has been quite poor. The state’s cumulative hospitalization figures never matched that of hospitals, and once the state went to weekly reporting of hospitalizations by age group, the fourteen day totals in the weekly report never came close to matching the totals from the race / ethnicity report. I had used the race / ethnicity report to calibrate my estimates for hospitalizations by age group.  Furthermore, the state dropped the race / ethnicity report from the dashboard in this latest update.  As a result, it’s unclear that I’ll be able to provide meaningful estimates of hospitalizations by age group going forward. 

Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics
7 Day  Trailing Average
November 3, 2020
         
Testing Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals)   6.3% 6.3% 3.6%
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected)   7.0% 6.7% 3.8%
         
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests)   1.8% 1.9% 1.1%
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested)   6.3% 6.3% 3.6%
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers)   0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Percentage Repeat Testers   76.1% 74.8% 74.0%
         
Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed)   0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed)   3.1% 3.3% 2.1%
Percentage Higher Ed Testers   45.2% 44.6% 48.9%
         
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week)   17,005 16,206 15,831
Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   30,062 32,177 29,654
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   67,410 67,827 58,373

Test positivity rates have held steady for the past several days – the first somewhat positive news in the last several weeks.  With the dashboard revision, the state appears to be providing daily, rather than weekly, updates on higher educational testing (not all the changes made by the state were misguided).  I’ve included them in this report.  As I’ve indicated in prior posts, higher education positivity rates are extremely low, and almost half the testing in the state since September 1st has been for higher education (https://www.masscoronavirus.net/massachusetts-college-testing-update-october-26-2020/). This higher ed testing has kept “all test” positivity lower than it would be otherwise, as Table 1 shows. 

Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 3, 2020
         
Hospitalization Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Confirmed  Patients Hospitalized   432 369 264
Confirmed  Patients in ICU   85 78 55
Confirmed  Patients Intubed   46 36 22
         
Net New Confirmed Patients   12 8 5
Net New ICU Patients   2 2 (2)
Net New Intubated Patients   1 1 0
         
 Percent ICU / Hospitalized   20% 21% 21%
 Percent Intubated / ICU   54% 46% 39%

I’ve revamped the hospitalization report shown in Table 2.  As noted previously, I’m now using the state-provided data for confirmed cases only.  In addition, I’m now showing the average daily net change in hospitalizations, ICU patients, and intubations over the last week.  For example, there has been an increase of 12 net hospitalizations over the past week, meaning that there are now approximately 84 (12 times 7) more hospitalized confirmed patients than one week ago.  The increase in the number of hospitalizations is greater now than it was four weeks or even one week ago. 

Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 3, 2020
         
Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Total Deaths Including Suspected   21 19 16
Total  Deaths Confirmed Only   21 18 16
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases)   12 8 14
Percent from Long-Term Care   58% 45% 87%
         
Total Cases Including Suspected   1222 1085 625
Total Confirmed Cases   1135 1009 588

The structure of Table 3 is unchanged.  The 7 day average of reported confirmed cases remains above 1,000, even though the state reported only less than 1,000 confirmed cases for the past two days.  The death rate is holding steady, but has gone up a bit over the past several weeks.  Now that the state has converted all the graphics on its ‘Dashboard of Public Health Indicators’ graphics to 7 day trailing averages, you will notice some difference between my figures and those provided by the state for the number of cases and number of deaths. 

This is because I am calculating the 7 day averages using the cases and deaths reported each day, and the state is calculating its averages using the cases and deaths on the day they occurred (the “as-of” date), rather than the day they are reported.  I favor the state’s approach, but only with a lag to account for the fact that there is a lag in the reporting of deaths and cases so that the most recent days undercount the eventual totals for those days.  Consequently, I expect that the numbers reported on the ‘Dashboard of Public Health Indicators’ will tend to be lower than those I report.

Categories
Data Update Methodology

Massachusetts Reporting Change November 2, 2020

Well, the state did it again. That Charlie Baker certainly is sly. The state revised the daily dashboard to eliminate useful information and generally provide a more upbeat assessment of the state of coronavirus in Massachusetts. This is a quick summary of the changes as I’ve identified them so far. I will perhaps have more later as I work through the changes, and I will also have to modify the data updates to accommodate these changes.

There are three significant changes as far as I can tell. First, the state dropped information about the number of people tested for the first time each day, and the total number of people tested. This means that the newly tested positivity rate (which was significantly higher than the all test positivity rate) can no longer be determined, nor can the breakdown between newly tested individuals and repeat testers. While the state is still reporting new confirmed and cases,, they are no longer reporting how many new people have been tested to determine a positivity rate. [Update.  Likely my mistake. Although the state did drop this from the dashboard, I might have missed the first time tester information in the files to be downloaded.  I still might be able to calculate this].

Second, they eliminated the race/ethnicity report. This was a way to double check and properly scale the weekly breakdown of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by age group. They are providing certain information by age, but I don’t think at first glance that it will be sufficient to continue to do this calculation.

Finally, they eliminated suspected hospitalizations from the hospital count. Thus, you will see a significant drop in hospitalizations today. That is fake news. In fact, 33 confirmed patients were added to the total today.

Disappointing on the whole. In my opinion, the state should be adding information to the report, not eliminating it.