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Massachusetts Data Update September 25, 2020

There is no good news in today’s report. The 7 day average percentage of positive cases for newly tested individuals hit 2.6% today, the highest level since June 14th.  This rate has been climbing for several days, after being below 2.0% from the end of June until the first week of September.  Repeat testers are now over 70% of those tested, and they continue to have a very low positivity rate of 0.2%.  However, the results for first-time testers are so bad that total test rate positivity hit 0.9% after being at 0.8% for over a week.

Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics
7 Day  Trailing Average
September 25, 2020
         
Testing Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals)   2.6% 2.1% 1.5%
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected)   2.8% 2.3% 1.6%
         
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests)   0.9% 0.8% 1.0%
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested)   2.6% 2.1% 1.5%
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers)   0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Percentage Repeat Testers   73.1% 69.2% 47.1%
         
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week)   16,689 14,682 19,555
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   54,177 46,426 29,485

Hospitalization statistics are no better than the testing statistics.  The 7 day average of patients hospitalized is now at its highest level since mid-August.  The number of patients in the ICU is at its highest level since mid-to-late July, and the number of intubated patients is higher than at any point since late July.

Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
September 25, 2020
         
Hospitalization Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Covid Patients Hospitalized   370 332 324
Covid Patients in ICU   69 62 60
Covid Patients Intubed   29 23 26
New Confirmed Patients   22 19 16
         
Percent ICU / Hospitalized   19% 19% 19%
Percent Intubated / ICU   42% 37% 43%

Although I don’t think case statistics are the best way to measure progress against the pandemic, it is notable that the 7 day average of reported confirmed cases is at the highest level since early June.  And the death count marches onward, with little improvement in the number of deaths or the percentage of deaths in long-term care facilities.  In short, we’re heading backwards.

Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
September 25, 2020
         
Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Total Deaths Including Suspected   15 13 17
Total  Deaths Confirmed Only   14 13 17
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases)   10 9 11
Percent from Long-Term Care   70% 69% 65%
         
Total Cases Including Suspected   414 371 343
Total Confirmed Cases   392 338 322

 

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