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Massachusetts Data Update October 27, 2020

The cat’s out of the bag, and it isn’t going to be easy getting it back in. We hit two milestones today – 7 day average test positivity for the newly tested is now 6% and the 7 day average of reported confirmed cases is over 1000 per day. It took 16 days for test positivity to increase from 2 to 3%, 17 days to increase from 3% to 4%, then 7 days from 4 to 5%, and 6 days to reach 6%.

Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics
7 Day  Trailing Average
October 27, 2020
         
Testing Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals)   6.0% 4.8% 3.3%
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected)   6.4% 5.1% 3.5%
         
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests)   1.7% 1.4% 1.1%
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested)   6.0% 4.8% 3.3%
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers)   0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
Percentage Repeat Testers   75.8% 76.2% 72.8%
         
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week)   16,008 15,768 14,423
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   67,301 59,430 55,015

 

All the hospital statistics hit highs not seen since early-to-mid July.  The 7 day average of hospitalized patients is up 8% from one week ago, and the count of patients in the ICU or intubated is up more than 25%.  New hospitalizations are up almost 20%.  Enough said.

Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
October 27, 2020
         
Hospitalization Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Covid Patients Hospitalized   545 502 393
Covid Patients in ICU   108 87 82
Covid Patients Intubed   42 33 28
New Confirmed Patients   49 41 28
         
Percent ICU / Hospitalized   20% 17% 21%
Percent Intubated / ICU   39% 38% 35%

 

As expected, cases are leading the charge, presumably indicating that even more hospitalizations and perhaps deaths will follow.  The 7 day new confirmed case average has increased by almost 50% in a week, and more than doubled from 4 weeks ago.  The number and proportion of deaths in long-term care facilities declined, but since the average number of deaths has stayed the same, this means that people dying are generally younger and healthier than before. 

 

Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
October 27, 2020
         
Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Total Deaths Including Suspected   19 18 14
Total  Deaths Confirmed Only   18 18 13
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases)   8 12 9
Percent from Long-Term Care   45% 66% 64%
         
Total Cases Including Suspected   1085 724 517
Total Confirmed Cases   1009 676 482

 

3 replies on “Massachusetts Data Update October 27, 2020”

Is there way to predict what the hospitalization and deaths might be in two to three weeks based upon current historical percentages. (like a few sites do) Then compare that to the actual numbers? This could show if the virus was weaker or stronger. It could help determine how much of a factor she plays.

The biggest impact on hospitalizations and deaths would not be whether the virus has weakened or not (as far as I know, there is no evidence that it has), but the change in the age composition of who is getting infected. As it shifts younger, I’d expect fewer hospitalizations and deaths. The other factor (probably not impacting hospitalizations, but it would impact death) is improvements in treatment protocols, as doctors have learned much more about the virus since the spring. In general, I would expect case fatality rates to drop in this surge because of the demographic and treatment factors.

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