The adverse trend continues. The 7 day positivity rate for newly tested individuals is 4.5%. Overall testing has flattened out, at least in the short-term, both for repeat testers and new individuals. The percentage of repeat testers is closing in on 80%, which has helped keep the overall test positivity rate in check, as repeat tester positivity is still 0.3%.
| Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics | ||||
| 7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
| October 20, 2020 | ||||
| Testing Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Individuals) | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.4% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected) | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (All Tests) | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested) | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.4% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| Percentage Repeat Testers | 77.5% | 73.4% | 73.8% | |
| Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week) | 15,782 | 16,077 | 16,588 | |
| All Tests (Lagged 1 Week) | 59,307 | 61,602 | 55,840 | |
Overall hospitalizations are relatively stable and haven’t risen as rapidly as cases, even accounting for lags from diagnosis to hospitalization. In the last four weeks, the 7 day case totals have almost doubled, but hospitalizations are up only 38% and have been level for over a week. The number of patients in the ICU has held steady since the end of September. In contrast, new confirmed hospital admissions are at their highest levels since the end of June.
| Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics | ||||
| 7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
| October 20, 2020 | ||||
| Hospitalization Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
| Covid Patients Hospitalized | 502 | 508 | 362 | |
| Covid Patients in ICU | 87 | 85 | 65 | |
| Covid Patients Intubed | 33 | 29 | 28 | |
| New Confirmed Patients | 41 | 36 | 23 | |
| Percent ICU / Hospitalized | 17% | 17% | 18% | |
| Percent Intubated / ICU | 38% | 34% | 43% | |
The 7 day average of new cases continues to rise, roughly commensurate with the higher positivity rate. Deaths in long-term care facilities are back near their long-term average of about 70%, and the overall number of deaths remains high.
| Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics | ||||
| 7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
| October 20, 2020 | ||||
| Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
| Total Deaths Including Suspected | 18 | 13 | 15 | |
| Total Deaths Confirmed Only | 18 | 13 | 15 | |
| Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases) | 12 | 8 | 11 | |
| Percent from Long-Term Care | 66% | 64% | 72% | |
| Total Cases Including Suspected | 724 | 638 | 368 | |
| Total Confirmed Cases | 676 | 601 | 349 | |
3 replies on “Massachusetts Data Update October 20, 2020”
Could the lack of relative rise in hospital, ICU, and little or no rise on deaths, mean that the people who are driving these new cases are relatively young and healthy?
Yes. As I had said in my post abut the age breakdown https://www.masscoronavirus.net/massachusetts-covid-breakdown-by-age-part-ii-case-analysis/, people under 40 are now 60% of confirmed cases, up from 30% in early April. So that is certainly part of the answer. I’m still concerned about the relatively large number of deaths, which haven’t budged for quite some time, and don’t really reflect the change in the case composition. Deaths are still very high among those 60 and older, despite the change in the number of cases in that group.
Deaths are still over 60% nursing homes and they would be treated with palliative care , the majority of the affected nursing home patients have DNR/DNI status and do not transport orders. If a person gets sick in a nursing home and is not a DNR, they then become a hospital/community death. If as I fear we keep trending up the age group of those affected is the key indicator for hospital admissions.