Data Update

Massachusetts Data Update November 25, 2020

Happy Thanksgiving.  Apparently, there were technical glitches that delayed yesterday’s dashboard report, and it covers a 30 hour period, rather than 24 hour period.  Take that with a grain of salt as the number of reported confirmed cases yesterday hit a pandemic record, besting the prior record on April 23rd.  Of course, there is significantly more testing now  (more than seven times as much).


Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics
7 Day  Trailing Average
November 25, 2020
Testing Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals)   9.3% 11.1% 6.6%
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected)   10.0% 11.8% 7.0%
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests)   3.0% 3.5% 1.9%
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested)   9.3% 11.1% 6.6%
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers)   0.7% 0.6% 0.4%
Percentage Repeat Testers   73.1% 72.4% 75.3%
Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed)   0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed)   4.6% 5.5% 3.4%
Percentage Higher Ed Testers   37.3% 38.2% 44.6%
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week)   22,970 20,781 16,450
Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   31,744 32,376 31,847
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   83,205 79,623 68,389


Despite that apparently bad news, most testing positivity rates have been level or moving down the past few days – a definitely positive sign that may come to an end after Thanksgiving.  The 7 day average positivity rate for newly tested individuals (9.3%), the overall positivity rate (3.0%), the higher education positivity rate (0.3%), and the rate outside higher education (4.6%) all hit their lowest levels in over two weeks.  Only the rate for repeat testers (0.7%) edged up. 

The overall number of tests and the number of new individuals tested are at their highest levels ever, which at least partly explains the increased number of cases even with lower positivity rates.


Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 25, 2020
Hospitalization Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
Confirmed  Patients Hospitalized   918 756 375
Confirmed  Patients in ICU   194 158 79
Confirmed  Patients Intubed   89 71 37
New Confirmed Admissions (17-Nov)   105 80 41
Net New Confirmed Patients   8 32 6
Net New ICU Patients   5 3 2
Net New Intubated Patients   5 0 2
 Percent ICU / Hospitalized   21% 21% 21%
 Percent Intubated / ICU   46% 45% 47%


The number of hospitalized covid patients is also increasing, of course, but the rate of increase appears to be slowing, as the 7 day average of net new hospitalized patients dropped from 32 one week ago to 8, more in line with the increases from four weeks ago.  Unfortunately, patients are being admitted to the ICU and intubated at a faster clip than one week ago.   Both these counts hit their highest levels in the fall surge on November 24th.


Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 25, 2020
Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
Total Deaths Including Suspected   28 27 21
Total  Deaths Confirmed Only   28 26 20
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases)   14 15 10
Percent from Long-Term Care   50% 57% 47%
Total Cases Including Suspected   2681 2618 1154
Total Confirmed Cases   2538 2435 1080


The 7 day average of cases continues to increase, but at a slower rate than previously (up a bit more than 4% compared to a week ago), reflecting the decreasing positivity rates among newly tested individuals.  The impact of the 30 hour reporting window should be seen in Friday’s report (no report today). Deaths are continuing to edge up slowly, even as the percentage of deaths in long-term care facilities is lower than it had been through much of the pandemic.


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