Happy Thanksgiving. Apparently, there were technical glitches that delayed yesterday’s dashboard report, and it covers a 30 hour period, rather than 24 hour period. Take that with a grain of salt as the number of reported confirmed cases yesterday hit a pandemic record, besting the prior record on April 23rd. Of course, there is significantly more testing now (more than seven times as much).
| Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics | ||||
| 7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
| November 25, 2020 | ||||
| Testing Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Individuals) | 9.3% | 11.1% | 6.6% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected) | 10.0% | 11.8% | 7.0% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (All Tests) | 3.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested) | 9.3% | 11.1% | 6.6% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers) | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | |
| Percentage Repeat Testers | 73.1% | 72.4% | 75.3% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed) | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed) | 4.6% | 5.5% | 3.4% | |
| Percentage Higher Ed Testers | 37.3% | 38.2% | 44.6% | |
| Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week) | 22,970 | 20,781 | 16,450 | |
| Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week) | 31,744 | 32,376 | 31,847 | |
| All Tests (Lagged 1 Week) | 83,205 | 79,623 | 68,389 | |
Despite that apparently bad news, most testing positivity rates have been level or moving down the past few days – a definitely positive sign that may come to an end after Thanksgiving. The 7 day average positivity rate for newly tested individuals (9.3%), the overall positivity rate (3.0%), the higher education positivity rate (0.3%), and the rate outside higher education (4.6%) all hit their lowest levels in over two weeks. Only the rate for repeat testers (0.7%) edged up.
The overall number of tests and the number of new individuals tested are at their highest levels ever, which at least partly explains the increased number of cases even with lower positivity rates.
| Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics | ||||
| 7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
| November 25, 2020 | ||||
| Hospitalization Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
| Confirmed Patients Hospitalized | 918 | 756 | 375 | |
| Confirmed Patients in ICU | 194 | 158 | 79 | |
| Confirmed Patients Intubed | 89 | 71 | 37 | |
| New Confirmed Admissions (17-Nov) | 105 | 80 | 41 | |
| Net New Confirmed Patients | 8 | 32 | 6 | |
| Net New ICU Patients | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| Net New Intubated Patients | 5 | 0 | 2 | |
| Percent ICU / Hospitalized | 21% | 21% | 21% | |
| Percent Intubated / ICU | 46% | 45% | 47% | |
The number of hospitalized covid patients is also increasing, of course, but the rate of increase appears to be slowing, as the 7 day average of net new hospitalized patients dropped from 32 one week ago to 8, more in line with the increases from four weeks ago. Unfortunately, patients are being admitted to the ICU and intubated at a faster clip than one week ago. Both these counts hit their highest levels in the fall surge on November 24th.
| Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics | ||||
| 7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
| November 25, 2020 | ||||
| Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
| Total Deaths Including Suspected | 28 | 27 | 21 | |
| Total Deaths Confirmed Only | 28 | 26 | 20 | |
| Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases) | 14 | 15 | 10 | |
| Percent from Long-Term Care | 50% | 57% | 47% | |
| Total Cases Including Suspected | 2681 | 2618 | 1154 | |
| Total Confirmed Cases | 2538 | 2435 | 1080 | |
The 7 day average of cases continues to increase, but at a slower rate than previously (up a bit more than 4% compared to a week ago), reflecting the decreasing positivity rates among newly tested individuals. The impact of the 30 hour reporting window should be seen in Friday’s report (no report today). Deaths are continuing to edge up slowly, even as the percentage of deaths in long-term care facilities is lower than it had been through much of the pandemic.