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Data Update

Massachusetts Data Update November 14, 2020

No surprises, although Massachusetts did hit several negative milestones in the past several days – test positivity rates of 10% for those newly tested, test positivity rates of 5% outside of higher education, and an overall test positivity rate of 3%. The total number of tests continues to increase, but slowly, and the percentage of first-time testers remains about 25%.

 

Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics
7 Day  Trailing Average
November 14, 2020
         
Testing Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals)   10.5% 8.4% 4.5%
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected)   11.3% 8.9% 4.7%
         
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests)   3.1% 2.6% 1.3%
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested)   10.5% 8.4% 4.5%
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers)   0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Percentage Repeat Testers   74.3% 73.6% 75.7%
         
Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed)   0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed)   5.2% 4.3% 2.4%
Percentage Higher Ed Testers   43.1% 42.1% 46.9%
         
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week)   20,250 17,630 17,146
Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   32,323 30,730 30,228
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   76,715 70,172 65,510

 

Hospitalization statistics are back to where they were in early to mid-July, but of course the numbers were headed down then, and they are now headed up.  Unfortunately, total hospitalizations are increasing at a faster clip – Massachusetts’ hospitals added almost 170 patients in the last 7 days compared to just under 100 in the 7 days prior to that.  It also appears that patients are a bit more ill than they were four weeks ago, as the percentage of hospitalized patients in the ICU, and percentage of ICU patients who are intubated are higher than they were.

 

Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 14, 2020
         
Hospitalization Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Confirmed  Patients Hospitalized   641 491 319
Confirmed  Patients in ICU   149 107 59
Confirmed  Patients Intubed   68 54 24
         
Net New Confirmed Patients   24 14 (3)
Net New ICU Patients   3 5 (0)
Net New Intubated Patients   2 2 0
         
 Percent ICU / Hospitalized   23% 22% 19%
 Percent Intubated / ICU   46% 50% 40%

 

A higher test positivity rate naturally leads to more cases – we’ve had over 2000 reported confirmed cases each day this week.  That number may drop Sunday and Monday, as reporting tends to slow down over the weekend.  The 7 day average of reported deaths, which had been somewhat held in check, hit 24 today for the first time since July 2.   On July 2nd, 70% of those deaths were in long-term care facilities compared to 53% today, which implies that healthier people are dying now.

 

Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 14, 2020
         
Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Total Deaths Including Suspected   24 20 19
Total  Deaths Confirmed Only   23 20 19
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases)   13 10 13
Percent from Long-Term Care   53% 51% 67%
         
Total Cases Including Suspected   2367 1573 657
Total Confirmed Cases   2219 1488 615

 

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