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Massachusetts Data Update November 10, 2020

Nothing good to report today. Test and case positivity rates are still increasing, and at a faster rate than before. No matter which measure of positivity at which one looks, the rate is double or triple what it was four weeks ago. The one exception is for repeat testers, for which the rate is approximately 50% higher, based on 7 day trailing averages. Test positivity is even increasing in higher education (albeit from a very low level), which had been the standout for quite some time. Keep in mind that there is a very large overlap between repeat testers and higher education testers.  Most people tested in higher education have been tested multiple times.

 

Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics
7 Day  Trailing Average
November 10, 2020
         
Testing Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals)   8.8% 6.7% 3.8%
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected)   9.3% 7.3% 4.0%
         
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests)   2.6% 2.0% 1.2%
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested)   8.8% 6.7% 3.8%
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers)   0.5% 0.4% 0.3%
Percentage Repeat Testers   74.1% 74.9% 73.5%
         
Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed)   0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed)   4.4% 3.5% 2.2%
Percentage Higher Ed Testers   42.9% 43.8% 44.6%
         
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week)   18,148 17,241 16,034
Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   31,656 30,996 30,121
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   72,199 69,356 61,768

 

And of course, hospitalizations are rising too, and almost as fast as positivity rates. The 7 day trailing average number of ICU patients has more than doubled from four weeks ago, and the number of intubated patients has almost tripled.  Hospitals in the state added almost 20 patients per day over the past week  (this is not new admissions, but net new admissions including discharges and deaths).

 

Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 10, 2020
         
Hospitalization Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Confirmed  Patients Hospitalized   546 432 317
Confirmed  Patients in ICU   129 85 60
Confirmed  Patients Intubed   61 46 22
         
Net New Confirmed Patients   19 12 5
Net New ICU Patients   8 2 1
Net New Intubated Patients   2 1 0
         
 Percent ICU / Hospitalized   24% 20% 19%
 Percent Intubated / ICU   47% 54% 37%

 

The only slightly positive news is that deaths haven’t dramatically begun to increase (and given better treatment options this might be the case going forward). The 7 day average of reported deaths had stayed under 20 per day from mid-July until October 22 (over three months), but it hasn’t moved much higher since then (let’s keep our fingers crossed). Cases are skyrocketing of course, with the 7 day average tripling since four weeks ago.

 

Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 10, 2020
         
Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Total Deaths Including Suspected   21 21 13
Total  Deaths Confirmed Only   21 21 13
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases)   9 12 8
Percent from Long-Term Care   44% 58% 64%
         
Total Cases Including Suspected   1899 1222 638
Total Confirmed Cases   1810 1135 601

 

2 replies on “Massachusetts Data Update November 10, 2020”

I think the fact that deaths have not increased in step with the positives is more than slightly good news. And I do think that will continue since treatments have gotten better. The rises in hospitalizations is certainly a concern, however. And with colder weather coming and people staying inside, that doesn’t bode well.

Yes, it is good news. I’m a little worried still, since deaths lag cases and hospitalizations, that deaths will start to rise. However, there are two things that work against that. First, the demographics are shifting younger, and treatments are better.

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