Nothing good to report today. Test and case positivity rates are still increasing, and at a faster rate than before. No matter which measure of positivity at which one looks, the rate is double or triple what it was four weeks ago. The one exception is for repeat testers, for which the rate is approximately 50% higher, based on 7 day trailing averages. Test positivity is even increasing in higher education (albeit from a very low level), which had been the standout for quite some time. Keep in mind that there is a very large overlap between repeat testers and higher education testers. Most people tested in higher education have been tested multiple times.
Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics | ||||
7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
November 10, 2020 | ||||
Testing Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals) | 8.8% | 6.7% | 3.8% | |
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected) | 9.3% | 7.3% | 4.0% | |
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests) | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | |
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested) | 8.8% | 6.7% | 3.8% | |
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers) | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | |
Percentage Repeat Testers | 74.1% | 74.9% | 73.5% | |
Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed) | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed) | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | |
Percentage Higher Ed Testers | 42.9% | 43.8% | 44.6% | |
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week) | 18,148 | 17,241 | 16,034 | |
Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week) | 31,656 | 30,996 | 30,121 | |
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week) | 72,199 | 69,356 | 61,768 |
And of course, hospitalizations are rising too, and almost as fast as positivity rates. The 7 day trailing average number of ICU patients has more than doubled from four weeks ago, and the number of intubated patients has almost tripled. Hospitals in the state added almost 20 patients per day over the past week (this is not new admissions, but net new admissions including discharges and deaths).
Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics | ||||
7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
November 10, 2020 | ||||
Hospitalization Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
Confirmed Patients Hospitalized | 546 | 432 | 317 | |
Confirmed Patients in ICU | 129 | 85 | 60 | |
Confirmed Patients Intubed | 61 | 46 | 22 | |
Net New Confirmed Patients | 19 | 12 | 5 | |
Net New ICU Patients | 8 | 2 | 1 | |
Net New Intubated Patients | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
Percent ICU / Hospitalized | 24% | 20% | 19% | |
Percent Intubated / ICU | 47% | 54% | 37% |
The only slightly positive news is that deaths haven’t dramatically begun to increase (and given better treatment options this might be the case going forward). The 7 day average of reported deaths had stayed under 20 per day from mid-July until October 22 (over three months), but it hasn’t moved much higher since then (let’s keep our fingers crossed). Cases are skyrocketing of course, with the 7 day average tripling since four weeks ago.
Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics | ||||
7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
November 10, 2020 | ||||
Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
Total Deaths Including Suspected | 21 | 21 | 13 | |
Total Deaths Confirmed Only | 21 | 21 | 13 | |
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases) | 9 | 12 | 8 | |
Percent from Long-Term Care | 44% | 58% | 64% | |
Total Cases Including Suspected | 1899 | 1222 | 638 | |
Total Confirmed Cases | 1810 | 1135 | 601 |
2 replies on “Massachusetts Data Update November 10, 2020”
I think the fact that deaths have not increased in step with the positives is more than slightly good news. And I do think that will continue since treatments have gotten better. The rises in hospitalizations is certainly a concern, however. And with colder weather coming and people staying inside, that doesn’t bode well.
Yes, it is good news. I’m a little worried still, since deaths lag cases and hospitalizations, that deaths will start to rise. However, there are two things that work against that. First, the demographics are shifting younger, and treatments are better.