Massachusetts Data Update November 10, 2020

Nothing good to report today. Test and case positivity rates are still increasing, and at a faster rate than before. No matter which measure of positivity at which one looks, the rate is double or triple what it was four weeks ago. The one exception is for repeat testers, for which the rate is approximately 50% higher, based on 7 day trailing averages. Test positivity is even increasing in higher education (albeit from a very low level), which had been the standout for quite some time. Keep in mind that there is a very large overlap between repeat testers and higher education testers.  Most people tested in higher education have been tested multiple times.

And of course, hospitalizations are rising too, and almost as fast as positivity rates. The 7 day trailing average number of ICU patients has more than doubled from four weeks ago, and the number of intubated patients has almost tripled.  Hospitals in the state added almost 20 patients per day over the past week  (this is not new admissions, but net new admissions including discharges and deaths).

The only slightly positive news is that deaths haven’t dramatically begun to increase (and given better treatment options this might be the case going forward). The 7 day average of reported deaths had stayed under 20 per day from mid-July until October 22 (over three months), but it hasn’t moved much higher since then (let’s keep our fingers crossed). Cases are skyrocketing of course, with the 7 day average tripling since four weeks ago.