Testing positivity rates remain at elevated levels, but are down from their highs – just in time for what will likely be a spike as a result of Christmas gatherings. All positivity rates are at levels last seen in early December, with the exception of the rate for repeat testers, which is at its highest level for the fall surge. Unfortunately, the positivity rates are well above what they were prior to Thanksgiving.
As one would expect, the amount of higher education testing has dropped back to the levels seen at the beginning of September as colleges and universities have closed for the holiday break, and education testing is now only 20% of all testing statewide.
| Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics | ||||
| 7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
| December 23, 2020 | ||||
| Testing Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Individuals) | 17.2% | 19.2% | 10.4% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected) | 18.2% | 20.0% | 10.9% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (All Tests) | 5.9% | 6.3% | 3.4% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested) | 17.2% | 19.2% | 10.4% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers) | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | |
| Percentage Repeat Testers | 71.5% | 72.0% | 72.1% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed) | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed) | 7.3% | 8.0% | 4.9% | |
| Percentage Higher Ed Testers | 20.5% | 23.0% | 33.1% | |
| Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week) | 24,521 | 24,886 | 22,701 | |
| Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week) | 20,118 | 21,578 | 31,744 | |
| All Tests (Lagged 1 Week) | 87,594 | 86,325 | 83,801 | |
Given the number of current number of daily cases, hospitalizations will inevitably continue to increase for the foreseeable future. We’ve more than doubled the number of covid patients in the hospital, the number of patients in the ICU, and the number of intubated patients in the past four weeks. While the net increase in these patient counts has slowed somewhat since the beginning of the month, it is likely that hospitals will come under increasing strain, especially several weeks after Christmas.
| Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics | ||||
| 7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
| December 23, 2020 | ||||
| Hospitalization Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
| Confirmed Patients Hospitalized | 1950 | 1723 | 918 | |
| Confirmed Patients in ICU | 393 | 343 | 194 | |
| Confirmed Patients Intubed | 212 | 182 | 89 | |
| New Confirmed Admissions (15-Dec) | 229 | 195 | 105 | |
| Net New Confirmed Patients | 31 | 39 | 8 | |
| Net New ICU Patients | 4 | 11 | 5 | |
| Net New Intubated Patients | 3 | 6 | 5 | |
| Percent ICU / Hospitalized | 20% | 20% | 21% | |
| Percent Intubated / ICU | 54% | 53% | 46% | |
With test positivity rates down a bit, and the number of tests holding relatively constant, the number of cases are also off their highs. The number of deaths is still rising, unfortunately. Today’s reported death count of 81 is the second highest since May – there were 89 deaths reported on December 9th. (As a side note, relatively high numbers of deaths are typically reported on Wednesday, as there is a lag in reporting deaths that have occurred over the weekend). The highest number of deaths occurring on a single day during the fall surge was 60 on December 7th.
| Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics | ||||
| 7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
| December 23, 2020 | ||||
| Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
| Total Deaths Including Suspected | 54 | 50 | 28 | |
| Total Deaths Confirmed Only | 53 | 48 | 28 | |
| Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases) | 17 | 18 | 14 | |
| Percent from Long-Term Care | 32% | 36% | 50% | |
| Total Cases Including Suspected | 4554 | 4957 | 2681 | |
| Total Confirmed Cases | 4334 | 4713 | 2538 | |