It looks to me that things are spinning out of control. By all measures, testing, hospitalization, case, and death statistics are getting worse. Despite this, I expect no action from Governor Baker other than entreaties to avoid holiday gatherings.
The 7 day trailing positivity rate for newly tested patients is the highest it has been since May 4th, when testing was much less available. It is more than 50% higher than one week ago. The all test positivity rate is 44% higher than one week ago, and the positivity rate outside of higher education is 39% higher. The all test positivity rate and the newly tested positivity rates have each more than doubled in the past four weeks.
| Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics | ||||
| 7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
| December 2, 2020 | ||||
| Testing Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Individuals) | 15.6% | 10.2% | 6.9% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected) | 17.4% | 10.7% | 7.3% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (All Tests) | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.1% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested) | 15.6% | 10.2% | 6.9% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers) | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | |
| Percentage Repeat Testers | 72.6% | 71.7% | 74.0% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed) | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed) | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | |
| Percentage Higher Ed Testers | 29.8% | 33.5% | 43.3% | |
| Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week) | 26,240 | 22,898 | 17,222 | |
| Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week) | 31,139 | 31,744 | 31,167 | |
| All Tests (Lagged 1 Week) | 92,839 | 83,258 | 69,939 | |
Hospitalizations are back to mid-June levels. In June, of course, hospitalizations were decreasing, rather than increasing. Over the past week, we’ve added a net 45 confirmed covid patients per day (this accounts for discharges and deaths), and the7 day average patient and ICU count has increased 20% from a week ago and almost two and one-half times from four weeks ago. The number of intubated patients increased by more than 30% in the past week.
| Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics | ||||
| 7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
| December 2, 2020 | ||||
| Hospitalization Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
| Confirmed Patients Hospitalized | 1100 | 918 | 447 | |
| Confirmed Patients in ICU | 233 | 194 | 90 | |
| Confirmed Patients Intubed | 117 | 89 | 48 | |
| New Confirmed Admissions (24-Nov) | 125 | 105 | 50 | |
| Net New Confirmed Patients | 45 | 8 | 14 | |
| Net New ICU Patients | 8 | 5 | 5 | |
| Net New Intubated Patients | 3 | 5 | 2 | |
| Percent ICU / Hospitalized | 21% | 21% | 20% | |
| Percent Intubated / ICU | 50% | 46% | 53% | |
The 7 day new confirmed case average is now the highest for the entire pandemic. Yes, testing has increased significantly, but today’s reported case increase of over 4,600 is staggering (and the total is 5,000 if suspected cases are included). Like hospitalizations, deaths are now at mid-June levels, and the 7 day average has increased over 20% in a week and 70% in four weeks.
| Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics | ||||
| 7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
| December 2, 2020 | ||||
| Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
| Total Deaths Including Suspected | 34 | 28 | 20 | |
| Total Deaths Confirmed Only | 34 | 28 | 19 | |
| Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases) | 15 | 14 | 11 | |
| Percent from Long-Term Care | 45% | 50% | 57% | |
| Total Cases Including Suspected | 2927 | 2681 | 1298 | |
| Total Confirmed Cases | 2716 | 2538 | 1206 | |