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Data Update

Massachusetts Data Update December 2, 2020

It looks to me that things are spinning out of control. By all measures, testing, hospitalization, case, and death statistics are getting worse.  Despite this, I expect no action from Governor Baker other than entreaties to avoid holiday gatherings.

The 7 day trailing positivity rate for newly tested patients is the highest it has been since May 4th, when testing was much less available. It is more than 50% higher than one week ago. The all test positivity rate is 44% higher than one week ago, and the positivity rate outside of higher education is 39% higher.  The all test positivity rate and the newly tested positivity rates have each more than doubled in the past four weeks.

 

Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics
7 Day  Trailing Average
December 2, 2020
         
Testing Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals)   15.6% 10.2% 6.9%
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected)   17.4% 10.7% 7.3%
         
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests)   4.9% 3.4% 2.1%
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested)   15.6% 10.2% 6.9%
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers)   0.9% 0.7% 0.4%
Percentage Repeat Testers   72.6% 71.7% 74.0%
         
Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed)   0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed)   6.8% 4.9% 3.6%
Percentage Higher Ed Testers   29.8% 33.5% 43.3%
         
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week)   26,240 22,898 17,222
Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   31,139 31,744 31,167
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   92,839 83,258 69,939

 

Hospitalizations are back to mid-June levels. In June, of course, hospitalizations were decreasing, rather than increasing.  Over the past week, we’ve added a net 45 confirmed covid patients per day (this accounts for discharges and deaths), and the7 day average patient and ICU count has increased 20% from a week ago and almost two and one-half times from four weeks ago. The number of intubated patients increased by more than 30% in the past week.

 

Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
December 2, 2020
         
Hospitalization Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Confirmed  Patients Hospitalized   1100 918 447
Confirmed  Patients in ICU   233 194 90
Confirmed  Patients Intubed   117 89 48
         
New Confirmed Admissions (24-Nov)   125 105 50
Net New Confirmed Patients   45 8 14
Net New ICU Patients   8 5 5
Net New Intubated Patients   3 5 2
         
 Percent ICU / Hospitalized   21% 21% 20%
 Percent Intubated / ICU   50% 46% 53%

 

The 7 day new confirmed case average is now the highest for the entire pandemic.  Yes, testing has increased significantly, but today’s reported case increase of over 4,600 is staggering (and the total is 5,000 if suspected cases are included). Like hospitalizations, deaths are now at mid-June levels, and the 7 day average has increased over 20% in a week and 70% in four weeks. 

 

Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
December 2, 2020
         
Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Total Deaths Including Suspected   34 28 20
Total  Deaths Confirmed Only   34 28 19
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases)   15 14 11
Percent from Long-Term Care   45% 50% 57%
         
Total Cases Including Suspected   2927 2681 1298
Total Confirmed Cases   2716 2538 1206

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