It has been over a week since my previous post, with very little change in the statistics other than hospitalizations. Testing positivity rates generally are somewhat higher than those reported in the prior post, but the large increases in positivity rates seem to be abating. However, even if the current case and positivity rates level off, the increasing strains on medical and hospital resources aren’t sustainable in the long run.
Keeping in mind that positivity rates are updated retroactively as more test results get reported, the positivity rate for newly tested individuals (that group represents 25% to 30% of all tests) has been essentially stable for over a week. The test positivity rates for other groups are roughly at the same levels as two weeks ago – other than repeat testers, for which positivity is continuing to increase slowly, and is at its highest level in almost five months. This may be because higher education testing, for which the positivity rate remains very low, has declined to about one-quarter of all testing, down from about 40% before Thanksgiving (virtually all higher education testing is repeat testing). Overall testing counts are higher again after dipping somewhat through Thanksgiving.
| Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics | ||||
| 7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
| December 17, 2020 | ||||
| Testing Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Individuals) | 18.8% | 18.8% | 10.8% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected) | 19.8% | 19.6% | 11.5% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (All Tests) | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.4% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested) | 18.8% | 18.8% | 10.8% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers) | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | |
| Percentage Repeat Testers | 72.9% | 71.3% | 72.7% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed) | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed) | 7.9% | 8.1% | 5.3% | |
| Percentage Higher Ed Testers | 25.1% | 25.3% | 37.8% | |
| Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week) | 24,406 | 20,683 | 20,824 | |
| Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week) | 21,491 | 17,810 | 31,094 | |
| All Tests (Lagged 1 Week) | 84,928 | 70,174 | 78,218 | |
Not surprisingly, hospitalizations continue to increase. Unfortunately, case levels from several weeks back were sufficiently high that the number of new admissions to hospitals is greater than the number of discharges (and deaths), which leads to more covid hospitalizations. The only positive news is that the number of net hospital admissions hasn’t changed much over the prior four weeks. Unfortunately, that isn’t the case with ICU or intubated patients, as the net patient increases are trending higher.
| Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics | ||||
| 7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
| December 17, 2020 | ||||
| Hospitalization Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
| Confirmed Patients Hospitalized | 1761 | 1498 | 792 | |
| Confirmed Patients in ICU | 354 | 298 | 162 | |
| Confirmed Patients Intubed | 187 | 151 | 72 | |
| New Confirmed Admissions (15-Dec) | 229 | 195 | 105 | |
| Net New Confirmed Patients | 38 | 40 | 37 | |
| Net New ICU Patients | 11 | 7 | 4 | |
| Net New Intubated Patients | 6 | 4 | 1 | |
| Percent ICU / Hospitalized | 20% | 20% | 20% | |
| Percent Intubated / ICU | 53% | 51% | 45% | |
Cases and death counts are essentially stable from one week ago. The percentage of deaths in long-term care facilities are also stable, and have decreased substantially since four weeks ago and from earlier in the pandemic. Since deaths overall are significantly higher than four weeks ago, this means that deaths outside of long-term care account for the bulk of the increase from four weeks ago.
| Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics | ||||
| 7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
| December 17, 2020 | ||||
| Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
| Total Deaths Including Suspected | 50 | 48 | 28 | |
| Total Deaths Confirmed Only | 49 | 47 | 27 | |
| Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases) | 17 | 17 | 15 | |
| Percent from Long-Term Care | 34% | 36% | 55% | |
| Total Cases Including Suspected | 4924 | 4839 | 2623 | |
| Total Confirmed Cases | 4692 | 4599 | 2442 | |
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