There is some evidence that testing positivity rates are leveling off after the Thanksgiving surge (the surge actually predates Thanksgiving by a few days). For example, the all test positivity rate of 5.7% is at its lowest level since December 1. The repeat tester positivity rate has held steady at 0.9% since late November. In addition, both the higher education positivity rate, and the positivity rate outside of higher education have declined slightly in the past several days. Hopefully, this trend will continue into Christmas.
Overall testing has declined somewhat, led by the decline in higher education testing – over 40% less testing compared to four weeks ago as students headed home for Thanksgiving.
| Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics | ||||
| 7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
| December 10, 2020 | ||||
| Testing Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Individuals) | 18.2% | 17.7% | 10.7% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected) | 19.4% | 18.7% | 11.1% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (All Tests) | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.3% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested) | 18.2% | 17.7% | 10.7% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers) | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | |
| Percentage Repeat Testers | 72.7% | 70.3% | 73.2% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed) | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | |
| Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed) | 7.7% | 7.8% | 5.2% | |
| Percentage Higher Ed Testers | 28.4% | 25.4% | 40.0% | |
| Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week) | 20,785 | 24,727 | 19,216 | |
| Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week) | 17,808 | 28,346 | 31,686 | |
| All Tests (Lagged 1 Week) | 70,029 | 87,555 | 74,114 | |
Good news on the testing front, but not such good news on the hospitalization front, as hospitalizations have been increasing at roughly the same rate for several weeks. Over the past week, we’ve admitted almost 200 new patients a day with covid (the net is lower because patients are discharged and unfortunately die), but the net increase has declined relative to a week ago. If we’re lucky, new admissions will stabilize before hospitals become severely overcrowded.
| Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics | ||||
| 7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
| December 10, 2020 | ||||
| Hospitalization Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
| Confirmed Patients Hospitalized | 1498 | 1151 | 592 | |
| Confirmed Patients in ICU | 298 | 240 | 141 | |
| Confirmed Patients Intubed | 151 | 121 | 65 | |
| New Confirmed Admissions (08-Dec) | 195 | 138 | 80 | |
| Net New Confirmed Patients | 40 | 51 | 23 | |
| Net New ICU Patients | 7 | 7 | 5 | |
| Net New Intubated Patients | 4 | 4 | 2 | |
| Percent ICU / Hospitalized | 20% | 21% | 24% | |
| Percent Intubated / ICU | 51% | 51% | 46% | |
The 7 day average of reported and suspected cases actually dropped slightly from its pandemic high of over 5,000 reached yesterday. It is amazing that at these high levels this 7 day average increased almost 50% from one week ago (although the averages one week ago might have been suppressed slightly because of the Thanksgiving weekend). Unfortunately, the 7 day average of reported deaths continued up, reaching a fall surge high water mark (and the highest total since June 7).
| Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics | ||||
| 7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
| December 10, 2020 | ||||
| Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
| Total Deaths Including Suspected | 48 | 34 | 23 | |
| Total Deaths Confirmed Only | 47 | 33 | 22 | |
| Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases) | 17 | 15 | 11 | |
| Percent from Long-Term Care | 36% | 43% | 47% | |
| Total Cases Including Suspected | 4839 | 3337 | 2147 | |
| Total Confirmed Cases | 4599 | 3123 | 2036 | |
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3 replies on “Massachusetts Data Update December 10, 2020”
How can we get more frequent testing for everyone?
Thank you for this insightful data. It is disheartening that we are moving in the wrong direction. Is there any way to understand if newer therapies are having a positive impact on outcomes? And, what demographic is driving the sharp increases? Lastly, will you be adding metrics on the vaccine distribution? That would be helpful too. Thanks again and Happy New Year to all!
I’d assume new therapies are having some effect, but I’m not a doctor, just an analyst. The case to hospitalization and death rates are certainly lower than in the spring, but I’m sure some of that is due to much more widely available testing now – many cases were undetected or unconfirmed in the spring because of lack of testing. And for the demographics, the only info I have is age. See https://www.masscoronavirus.net/massachusetts-age-analysis-update-december-19-2020/ for the latest on the age breakdown of cases and deaths (I’ve given up on hospitalizations by age because of the poor data from the state).
And I will eventually do something on vaccines, pending more data from the state.