I’m not totally sure there is any point to doing these periodic updates on the covid statistics in Massachusetts, as cases, hospitalizations, and deaths continue to increase rapidly. There are perhaps some signs that test positivity rates are beginning to level off, albeit at staggeringly high levels compared to the lulls of the late spring and summer. But I’ve been lured into thinking that before, only to be blindsided by higher rates shortly thereafter.
Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics | ||||
7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
December 6, 2020 | ||||
Testing Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals) | 17.5% | 13.7% | 8.7% | |
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected) | 18.6% | 14.4% | 9.1% | |
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests) | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.7% | |
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested) | 17.5% | 13.7% | 8.7% | |
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers) | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | |
Percentage Repeat Testers | 72.9% | 70.8% | 73.7% | |
Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed) | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed) | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.4% | |
Percentage Higher Ed Testers | 29.4% | 27.6% | 41.7% | |
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week) | 19,070 | 26,037 | 17,469 | |
Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week) | 18,053 | 33,704 | 30,751 | |
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week) | 65,411 | 92,343 | 70,388 |
As high as these test positivity rates are, some have held steady or even dropped over the past few days. Nonetheless, it seems clear that positivity rates this high aren’t sustainable for long without putting tremendous strain on our hospital resources. As expected, higher education testing began to drop significantly as students headed home for Thanksgiving. This, coupled with reduced testing outside of higher ed because of the holiday, accounts for the drop in the week-over-week testing totals in Table 1.
Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics | ||||
7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
December 6, 2020 | ||||
Hospitalization Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
Confirmed Patients Hospitalized | 1312 | 985 | 510 | |
Confirmed Patients in ICU | 267 | 214 | 115 | |
Confirmed Patients Intubed | 133 | 105 | 56 | |
New Confirmed Admissions (01-Dec) | 138 | 125 | 57 | |
Net New Confirmed Patients | 48 | 27 | 19 | |
Net New ICU Patients | 9 | 7 | 8 | |
Net New Intubated Patients | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
Percent ICU / Hospitalized | 20% | 22% | 23% | |
Percent Intubated / ICU | 50% | 49% | 49% |
And of course, high positivity rates and high numbers of new cases translate eventually to more hospitalized patients, with the 7 day average increasing one-third week over week. ICU patients and intubated patients each increased 25% week over week,.
Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics | ||||
7 Day Trailing Average | ||||
December 6, 2020 | ||||
Statistic | Current | 7 Days Ago | 4 Weeks Ago | |
Total Deaths Including Suspected | 40 | 29 | 19 | |
Total Deaths Confirmed Only | 39 | 29 | 19 | |
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases) | 16 | 14 | 9 | |
Percent from Long-Term Care | 40% | 47% | 49% | |
Total Cases Including Suspected | 4593 | 2620 | 1670 | |
Total Confirmed Cases | 4342 | 2479 | 1584 |
Cases continue to increase at a staggering clip. Over the past week, we’ve averaged almost 50% more reported and suspected cases per day than the highest one day total in the spring. Deaths, of course, are also rapidly increasing. Although deaths in long-term care facilities are a smaller percentage of deaths than at any time previously during the pandemic, the absolute number of long-term care deaths are still as high as early July.
2 replies on “Massachusetts Data Update December 6, 2020”
Thanks for providing the hospitalizations. They’re not always easy to find.
I can certainly understand how this unfavorable trajectory might make you hesitant to continue. I am sure all of your readers have appreciated your analysis. In any case, if you pause, I am hoping you’ll resume offering analyses once the vaccination program is underway, and identifying correlations to all of the current metrics. I am tired of the government spin.
Not too much to ask. : )