Category: Data Update

Test positivity rates in Massachusetts are creeping upward slightly, hitting 1.8% on September 6, after being at a pandemic low rate of 1.5% for about a week. Is this the start of a trend? It is too early to tell, as there was a similar increase in positive rates at the end of July that petered out. In contrast, the headline positivity rate reported by the Commonwealth remains at its pandemic low of 0.9%. Why the disconnect? Repeat testers. The positivity rate for repeat testers is 0.3%, and they now represent almost 60% of all recent tests, up from 30% four weeks ago. Almost all of the recent increase in testing in the state is from repeat testers.

Two technical notes. First, I’ve updated the positivity rate that includes suspected cases to reflect the large drop in suspected cases that the state reported on September 3, when it eliminated over 8,000 cases from cumulative totals. Because there are so many fewer suspected cases in the historical data, the difference between the baseline individual positivity rate and the suspected case rate is smaller than previously.

Second, the state continues to eliminate suspected cases (and deaths) from the record, but no longer is reporting the back history with which to identify when these suspected cases were removed. The numbers of new dropped cases is quite small so far, but this makes some of the case reporting slightly problematic.

Hospitalizations remain in equilibrium, with little change over the past week or month.  One note: based on the analysis in yesterday’s post https://www.masscoronavirus.net/the-massachusetts-hospitalization-puzzle I am now using the new confirmed patients reported by hospitals to track admissions.

Case and death figures remain basically unchanged, with one exception.  The percentage of deaths in long-term care facilities has dropped somewhat in the past week or month.  Is Massachusetts beginning to get this under control?   Let’s hope so.

Massachusetts appears to be in Covid equilibrium. Test positivity rates have declined somewhat over the past four weeks, but remain the highest in New England. Testing has ramped up in the past month (perhaps in part because students and some teachers are returning to school at all levels).

An interesting statistic to note is the shift in the composition of those being tested.  Over the past week, almost half of tests performed have been for people who have been tested before.  While this seems to be partly an artifact of more rapid turnaround time for repeat testers, there clearly appears to be increased emphasis on preventative testing. In fact, over the last four weeks the number of repeat tests has increased by almost 300%, compared to an increase of  57% for people being tested for the first time. The shift to  repeat testers are in part the driver of the low overall test positivity rate (currently 1.0%) as they have a much lower positivity rate (currently 0.3%) than people tested for the first time (currently 1.5%). Most of them are being tested asymptomatically.

Hospitalization figures have remained stubbornly consistent for over a month.  On July 22, there was a large drop in the number of Covid hospitalizations from 532 to 351, and they have remained fairly steady since then.  (The large drop may a result of the federally-mandated  switch in hospital reporting from the CDC to HHS). 

The number of ICU and intubated patients have followed roughly the same pattern – there were 49 patients in the ICU and 29 intubated patients in hospitals on July 23, essentially the same as today.  The number of patients newly admitted to the hospital has remained steady of the past six weeks as well.  While covid-19 is well under control in Massachusetts, it remains nowhere near being extinguished.

Not surprisingly, death statistics in Massachusetts roughly track  hospitalization and critcal care statistics. There has been little change in the number of reported deaths (confirmed and suspected) over the past month.  The 7 day trailing number of reported deaths hit 16 on July 16, and has been in a tight range since then.  This reinforces the case that we are in equilibrium.

What remains striking is the high percentage of deaths in long-term care facilities, which has been almost 65% over the course of the pandemic in Massachusetts (and almost 72% of deaths since June 1).  There is no sign that this troubling trend is abating.

The case statistics are a function of both testing and test positivity rates.  The number of cases (confirmed and suspected) of Covid remains high, but this is primarily a function of increased testing, as positivity rates are at or near the all time low.

Case positivity rates remain at or near pandemic lows. The trailing 7 day average positivity rate for individuals is 1.5%. This is just up a tick from the pandemic low of 1.4%. The 7 day average positivity rate based on tests is at 1.0% – 0.4% for retested individuals, and 1.5% for newly tested individuals. The 1.0% figure is a pandemic level low. The positivity rate including suspected cases is 1.7%, also a pandemic level low.

The trailing 7-day reported death total of confirmed and suspected cases is 17. This has moved up somewhat during the past several days, but has hovered between 13 and 17 since mid-July. The great majority of deaths continue to come from long-term care facilities – over the past week, about 70% of deaths have been in long-term care facilities.

The 7-day trailing average of reported cases (confirmed and suspected) is 352 (adjusted for the absence of reporting on August 23). While this is higher than during most of July, this is due to increased testing, as positivity rates now are lower than they were throughout July. Testing has ramped up considerably, with about 17,000 new individuals tested on average each day in August so far, compared to about 12,000 each day during July.