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Massachusetts Reporting Change January 4, 2021

Somebody or multiple people at the Massachusetts Department of Public Health have way too much time on their hands.   The Commonwealth changed the reporting structure of the daily dashboard once again.  Quite frankly, I think the state should focus more on developing a strategy for getting people vaccinated and focus less on changing the dashboard report structure. The files that I used for my analysis have changed as well – I will now work on seeing if all the data I had used for my data updates is still available, and adapt accordingly. Stay tuned.

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Data Update

Massachusetts Data Update December 30, 2020

It’s deja vu all over again.  (But worse).  A few days before Thanksgiving, test positivity rates, which had begun to level off after sharply rising through much of the fall, began to increase significantly again. A few weeks after Thanksgiving, positivity rates had once again started to level off and even decline somewhat from the Thanksgiving surge. Unfortunately, on the 24th of December, positivity rates across all testing categories started to increase once again, with no short-term end in sight.

For newly tested individuals, the 7 day trailing positivity rate is at its highest level since April 23rd. Higher education positivity rates are at their highest recorded level, but the state didn’t break out this category until mid-August. Not surprisingly, higher education testing has declined significantly, currently accounting for about 10% of all tests. Conversely, the highest percentage of tests since early September are for people being tested for the first time.  This could be because of the drop in higher education testing (almost all repeat testing) or because more people are feeling symptomatic and are getting tested.

 

Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics
7 Day  Trailing Average
December 30, 2020
         
Testing Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals)   23.0% 18.1% 17.0%
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected)   24.9% 18.8% 18.0%
         
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests)   8.4% 6.1% 5.7%
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested)   23.0% 18.1% 17.0%
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers)   1.7% 1.3% 1.0%
Percentage Repeat Testers   68.5% 71.3% 70.6%
         
Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed)   0.6% 0.4% 0.5%
Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed)   9.4% 7.3% 7.4%
Percentage Higher Ed Testers   10.7% 17.3% 25.3%
         
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week)   24,637 24,457 26,103
Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   14,830 20,118 31,140
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   85,842 87,781 94,095

 

The number of patients in the hospital is also increasing, but at a slower rate than over the past week or month.  So far, hospitalizations are under control, but we haven’t seen the likely surge from the Christmas (and New Years?) positivity and case increases.  The percentage of hospitalized patients in the ICU has held steady at about 20% for quite some time, but the percentage of ICU patients who are intubated is increasing – clearly not a good sign but perhaps only temporary.

 

Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
December 30, 2020
         
Hospitalization Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Confirmed  Patients Hospitalized   2167 1950 1100
Confirmed  Patients in ICU   421 393 233
Confirmed  Patients Intubed   233 212 117
         
New Confirmed Admissions (15-Dec)   229 229 125
Net New Confirmed Patients   27 31 45
Net New ICU Patients   3 4 8
Net New Intubated Patients   1 3 3
         
 Percent ICU / Hospitalized   19% 20% 21%
 Percent Intubated / ICU   55% 54% 50%

 

The inevitable consequence of rising positivity, case counts, and hospitalizations is deaths.  There had not been more than 100 reported deaths in one day since May 20th, and Massachusetts surpassed that threshold both on December 27th and December 30th, increasing the 7 day average number of reported deaths to its highest level since early June.  The percentage of deaths in long-term care continues to remain (relatively) low, even as the absolute number of long-term care deaths has risen with the total number of deaths.  Case counts have leveled off, although testing is down somewhat as a result of the holidays.

 

Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
December 30, 2020
         
Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Total Deaths Including Suspected   67 54 34
Total  Deaths Confirmed Only   66 53 34
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases)   22 17 15
Percent from Long-Term Care   33% 32% 45%
         
Total Cases Including Suspected   4593 4554 2927
Total Confirmed Cases   4302 4334 2716

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Categories
Age Analysis

Massachusetts Age Analysis Update December 19, 2020

This is an update to the post in early November that looked at cases and deaths by age cohort over time. As I noted in that post, because of the shortcomings of the data supplied by the state, I developed a methodology to estimate this information from the Massachusetts Weekly Public Health Report. The issues with the data and the methodology are explained in (https://www.masscoronavirus.net/massachusetts-covid-breakdown-by-age-part-i-methodology/).

Since the November post, there have been sharp increases in both cases and deaths in the state. Figure 1 shows the case incidence rate by age cohort.

 

For all age cohorts, case incidence rates have increased significantly since their summer lows, with particularly sharp increases starting in mid-October through and after Thanksgiving. As of December 19th, case incidence rates for the two cohorts under 60 are now almost at the levels of the 80 and over cohort from early May – roughly 1/2 of 1 percent of all people in those age groups in Massachusetts have been diagnosed with Covid each week over the past several weeks . The rates for the two older cohorts remain lower, but aren’t far behind, and have increased at even a faster rate since the update six weeks ago. Of course, there is significantly more testing now than there was in early May, so it is possible that fewer people are actually infectious now than in May.

Figure 2 shows the percentages of cases by age cohort.

As has been the case since early May, more cases are in the under 40 group. However, the under 40 share of cases, which peaked at somewhat over 60% near the end of September, has declined to about 50%, approximately the same as the under 40 share of the state population. In fact, the case percentages for each age cohort are now roughly in line with their population percentages – the 40 to 59 year old group has a slightly higher case share than population share, and the 60 to 79 year old cohort has a slightly lower case share than population share, but neither discrepancy is particularly pronounced.

This is not the case with deaths, as older adults continue to die at a much higher rate than younger people. Figure 3 shows the death incidence rates by age cohort.

After the summer lull, death rates began creeping up in late October, and the increase has been even more pronounced in the past several weeks. As has been the case throughout the pandemic, those 80 and over are dying with Covid at the highest rates by far – and their death rate is almost ten times greater than that of the 60 to 79 cohort. Death rates remain quite low for those under 60, but have ticked up slightly along with the increase in deaths overall .

The percentage of deaths by age cohort has been remarkably stable throughout the pandemic, as Figure 4 shows – roughly 60% of deaths are for those 80 and over, and over 90% of deaths are for those 60 and over. Very few people under 40 have died from Covid in Massachusetts.

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Data Update

Massachusetts Data Update December 23, 2020

Testing positivity rates remain at elevated levels, but are down from their highs – just in time for what will likely be a spike as a result of Christmas gatherings. All positivity rates are at levels last seen in early December, with the exception of the rate for repeat testers, which is at its highest level for the fall surge.  Unfortunately, the positivity rates are well above what they were prior to Thanksgiving.

As one would expect, the amount of higher education testing has dropped back to the levels seen at the beginning of September as colleges and universities have closed for the holiday break, and education testing is now only 20% of all testing statewide.

 

Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics
7 Day  Trailing Average
December 23, 2020
         
Testing Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals)   17.2% 19.2% 10.4%
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected)   18.2% 20.0% 10.9%
         
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests)   5.9% 6.3% 3.4%
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested)   17.2% 19.2% 10.4%
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers)   1.4% 1.3% 0.7%
Percentage Repeat Testers   71.5% 72.0% 72.1%
         
Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed)   0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed)   7.3% 8.0% 4.9%
Percentage Higher Ed Testers   20.5% 23.0% 33.1%
         
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week)   24,521 24,886 22,701
Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   20,118 21,578 31,744
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   87,594 86,325 83,801

 

Given the number of current number of daily cases, hospitalizations will inevitably continue to increase for the foreseeable future. We’ve more than doubled the number of covid patients in the hospital, the number of patients in the ICU, and the number of intubated patients in the past four weeks.  While the net increase in these patient counts has slowed somewhat since the beginning of the month, it is likely that hospitals will come under increasing strain, especially several weeks after Christmas.

 

Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
December 23, 2020
         
Hospitalization Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Confirmed  Patients Hospitalized   1950 1723 918
Confirmed  Patients in ICU   393 343 194
Confirmed  Patients Intubed   212 182 89
         
New Confirmed Admissions (15-Dec)   229 195 105
Net New Confirmed Patients   31 39 8
Net New ICU Patients   4 11 5
Net New Intubated Patients   3 6 5
         
 Percent ICU / Hospitalized   20% 20% 21%
 Percent Intubated / ICU   54% 53% 46%

 

With test positivity rates down a bit, and the number of tests holding relatively constant, the number of cases are also off their highs.  The number of deaths is still rising, unfortunately.  Today’s reported death count of 81 is the second highest since May – there were 89 deaths reported on December 9th.  (As a side note, relatively high numbers of deaths are typically reported on Wednesday, as there is a lag in reporting deaths that have occurred over the weekend).  The highest number of deaths occurring on a single day during the fall surge was 60 on December 7th.

 

Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
December 23, 2020
         
Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Total Deaths Including Suspected   54 50 28
Total  Deaths Confirmed Only   53 48 28
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases)   17 18 14
Percent from Long-Term Care   32% 36% 50%
         
Total Cases Including Suspected   4554 4957 2681
Total Confirmed Cases   4334 4713 2538

 

Categories
Data Update

Massachusetts Data Update December 17, 2020

It has been over a week since my previous post, with very little change in the statistics other than hospitalizations. Testing positivity rates generally are somewhat higher than those reported in the prior post, but the large increases in positivity rates seem to be abating. However, even if the current case and positivity rates level off, the increasing strains on medical and hospital resources aren’t sustainable in the long run.

Keeping in mind that positivity rates are updated retroactively as more test results get reported, the positivity rate for newly tested individuals (that group represents 25% to 30% of all tests) has been essentially stable for over a week. The test positivity rates for other groups are roughly at the same levels as two weeks ago – other than repeat testers, for which positivity is continuing to increase slowly, and is at its highest level in almost five months. This may be because higher education testing, for which the positivity rate remains very low, has declined to about one-quarter of all testing, down from about 40% before Thanksgiving (virtually all higher education testing is repeat testing). Overall testing counts are higher again after dipping somewhat through Thanksgiving.

 

Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics
7 Day  Trailing Average
December 17, 2020
         
Testing Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals)   18.8% 18.8% 10.8%
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected)   19.8% 19.6% 11.5%
         
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests)   6.0% 6.1% 3.4%
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested)   18.8% 18.8% 10.8%
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers)   1.3% 1.0% 0.6%
Percentage Repeat Testers   72.9% 71.3% 72.7%
         
Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed)   0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed)   7.9% 8.1% 5.3%
Percentage Higher Ed Testers   25.1% 25.3% 37.8%
         
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week)   24,406 20,683 20,824
Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   21,491 17,810 31,094
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   84,928 70,174 78,218

 

Not surprisingly, hospitalizations continue to increase.   Unfortunately, case levels from several weeks back were sufficiently high that the number of new admissions to hospitals is greater than the number of discharges (and deaths), which leads to more covid hospitalizations.  The only positive news is that the number of net hospital admissions hasn’t changed much over the prior four weeks.  Unfortunately, that isn’t the case with ICU or intubated patients, as the net patient increases are trending higher.

 

Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
December 17, 2020
         
Hospitalization Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Confirmed  Patients Hospitalized   1761 1498 792
Confirmed  Patients in ICU   354 298 162
Confirmed  Patients Intubed   187 151 72
         
New Confirmed Admissions (15-Dec)   229 195 105
Net New Confirmed Patients   38 40 37
Net New ICU Patients   11 7 4
Net New Intubated Patients   6 4 1
         
 Percent ICU / Hospitalized   20% 20% 20%
 Percent Intubated / ICU   53% 51% 45%

 

Cases and death counts are essentially stable from one week ago.  The percentage of deaths in long-term care facilities are also stable, and have decreased substantially since four weeks ago and from earlier in the pandemic. Since deaths overall are significantly higher than four weeks ago, this means that deaths outside of long-term care account for the bulk of the increase from four weeks ago.

Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
December 17, 2020
         
Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Total Deaths Including Suspected   50 48 28
Total  Deaths Confirmed Only   49 47 27
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases)   17 17 15
Percent from Long-Term Care   34% 36% 55%
         
Total Cases Including Suspected   4924 4839 2623
Total Confirmed Cases   4692 4599 2442

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Categories
Data Update

Massachusetts Data Update December 10, 2020

There is some evidence that testing positivity rates are leveling off after the Thanksgiving surge (the surge actually predates Thanksgiving by a few days). For example, the all test positivity rate of 5.7% is at its lowest level since December 1. The repeat tester positivity rate has held steady at 0.9% since late November.  In addition, both the higher education positivity rate, and the positivity rate outside of higher education have declined slightly in the past several days. Hopefully, this trend will continue into Christmas.

Overall testing has declined somewhat, led by the decline in higher education testing – over 40% less testing compared to four weeks ago as students headed home for Thanksgiving.

 

Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics
7 Day  Trailing Average
December 10, 2020
         
Testing Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals)   18.2% 17.7% 10.7%
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected)   19.4% 18.7% 11.1%
         
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests)   5.7% 5.9% 3.3%
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested)   18.2% 17.7% 10.7%
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers)   0.9% 0.9% 0.5%
Percentage Repeat Testers   72.7% 70.3% 73.2%
         
Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed)   0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed)   7.7% 7.8% 5.2%
Percentage Higher Ed Testers   28.4% 25.4% 40.0%
         
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week)   20,785 24,727 19,216
Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   17,808 28,346 31,686
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   70,029 87,555 74,114

 

Good news on the testing front, but not such good news on the hospitalization front, as hospitalizations have been increasing at roughly the same rate for several weeks.  Over the past week, we’ve admitted almost 200 new patients a day with covid (the net is lower because patients are discharged and unfortunately die), but the net increase has declined relative to a week ago.  If we’re lucky, new admissions will stabilize before hospitals become severely overcrowded.

 

Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
December 10, 2020
         
Hospitalization Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Confirmed  Patients Hospitalized   1498 1151 592
Confirmed  Patients in ICU   298 240 141
Confirmed  Patients Intubed   151 121 65
         
New Confirmed Admissions (08-Dec)   195 138 80
Net New Confirmed Patients   40 51 23
Net New ICU Patients   7 7 5
Net New Intubated Patients   4 4 2
         
 Percent ICU / Hospitalized   20% 21% 24%
 Percent Intubated / ICU   51% 51% 46%

 

The 7 day average of reported and suspected cases actually dropped slightly from its pandemic high of over 5,000 reached yesterday.  It is amazing that at these high levels this 7 day average increased almost 50% from one week ago (although the averages one week ago might  have been suppressed slightly because of the Thanksgiving weekend). Unfortunately, the 7 day average of reported deaths continued up, reaching a fall surge high water mark (and the highest total since June 7).

 

Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
December 10, 2020
         
Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Total Deaths Including Suspected   48 34 23
Total  Deaths Confirmed Only   47 33 22
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases)   17 15 11
Percent from Long-Term Care   36% 43% 47%
         
Total Cases Including Suspected   4839 3337 2147
Total Confirmed Cases   4599 3123 2036

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Categories
Data Update

Massachusetts Data Update December 6, 2020

I’m not totally sure there is any point to doing these periodic updates on the covid statistics in Massachusetts, as cases, hospitalizations, and deaths continue to increase rapidly. There are perhaps some signs that test positivity rates are beginning to level off, albeit at staggeringly high levels compared to the lulls of the late spring and summer.  But I’ve been lured into thinking that before, only to be blindsided by higher rates shortly thereafter.

 

Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics
7 Day  Trailing Average
December 6, 2020
         
Testing Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals)   17.5% 13.7% 8.7%
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected)   18.6% 14.4% 9.1%
         
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests)   5.3% 4.6% 2.7%
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested)   17.5% 13.7% 8.7%
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers)   0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
Percentage Repeat Testers   72.9% 70.8% 73.7%
         
Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed)   0.5% 0.3% 0.2%
Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed)   7.4% 6.2% 4.4%
Percentage Higher Ed Testers   29.4% 27.6% 41.7%
         
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week)   19,070 26,037 17,469
Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   18,053 33,704 30,751
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   65,411 92,343 70,388

 

As high as these test positivity rates are, some have held steady or even dropped over the past few days.  Nonetheless, it seems clear that positivity rates this high aren’t sustainable for long without putting tremendous strain on our hospital resources.  As expected, higher education testing began to drop significantly as students headed home for Thanksgiving.   This, coupled with reduced testing outside of higher ed because of the holiday, accounts for the drop in the week-over-week testing totals in Table 1.

 

Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
December 6, 2020
         
Hospitalization Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Confirmed  Patients Hospitalized   1312 985 510
Confirmed  Patients in ICU   267 214 115
Confirmed  Patients Intubed   133 105 56
         
New Confirmed Admissions (01-Dec)   138 125 57
Net New Confirmed Patients   48 27 19
Net New ICU Patients   9 7 8
Net New Intubated Patients   4 3 2
         
 Percent ICU / Hospitalized   20% 22% 23%
 Percent Intubated / ICU   50% 49% 49%

 

And of course, high positivity rates and high numbers of new cases translate eventually to more hospitalized patients, with the 7 day average increasing one-third week over week.  ICU patients and intubated patients each increased 25% week over week,.

 

Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
December 6, 2020
         
Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Total Deaths Including Suspected   40 29 19
Total  Deaths Confirmed Only   39 29 19
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases)   16 14 9
Percent from Long-Term Care   40% 47% 49%
         
Total Cases Including Suspected   4593 2620 1670
Total Confirmed Cases   4342 2479 1584

 

Cases continue to increase at a staggering clip.  Over the past week, we’ve averaged almost 50% more reported and suspected cases per day than the highest one day total in the spring.  Deaths, of course, are also rapidly increasing.  Although deaths in long-term care facilities are a smaller percentage of deaths than at any time previously during the pandemic, the absolute number of long-term care deaths are still as high as early July.

 

Categories
Data Update

Massachusetts Data Update December 2, 2020

It looks to me that things are spinning out of control. By all measures, testing, hospitalization, case, and death statistics are getting worse.  Despite this, I expect no action from Governor Baker other than entreaties to avoid holiday gatherings.

The 7 day trailing positivity rate for newly tested patients is the highest it has been since May 4th, when testing was much less available. It is more than 50% higher than one week ago. The all test positivity rate is 44% higher than one week ago, and the positivity rate outside of higher education is 39% higher.  The all test positivity rate and the newly tested positivity rates have each more than doubled in the past four weeks.

 

Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics
7 Day  Trailing Average
December 2, 2020
         
Testing Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals)   15.6% 10.2% 6.9%
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected)   17.4% 10.7% 7.3%
         
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests)   4.9% 3.4% 2.1%
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested)   15.6% 10.2% 6.9%
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers)   0.9% 0.7% 0.4%
Percentage Repeat Testers   72.6% 71.7% 74.0%
         
Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed)   0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed)   6.8% 4.9% 3.6%
Percentage Higher Ed Testers   29.8% 33.5% 43.3%
         
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week)   26,240 22,898 17,222
Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   31,139 31,744 31,167
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   92,839 83,258 69,939

 

Hospitalizations are back to mid-June levels. In June, of course, hospitalizations were decreasing, rather than increasing.  Over the past week, we’ve added a net 45 confirmed covid patients per day (this accounts for discharges and deaths), and the7 day average patient and ICU count has increased 20% from a week ago and almost two and one-half times from four weeks ago. The number of intubated patients increased by more than 30% in the past week.

 

Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
December 2, 2020
         
Hospitalization Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Confirmed  Patients Hospitalized   1100 918 447
Confirmed  Patients in ICU   233 194 90
Confirmed  Patients Intubed   117 89 48
         
New Confirmed Admissions (24-Nov)   125 105 50
Net New Confirmed Patients   45 8 14
Net New ICU Patients   8 5 5
Net New Intubated Patients   3 5 2
         
 Percent ICU / Hospitalized   21% 21% 20%
 Percent Intubated / ICU   50% 46% 53%

 

The 7 day new confirmed case average is now the highest for the entire pandemic.  Yes, testing has increased significantly, but today’s reported case increase of over 4,600 is staggering (and the total is 5,000 if suspected cases are included). Like hospitalizations, deaths are now at mid-June levels, and the 7 day average has increased over 20% in a week and 70% in four weeks. 

 

Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
December 2, 2020
         
Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Total Deaths Including Suspected   34 28 20
Total  Deaths Confirmed Only   34 28 19
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases)   15 14 11
Percent from Long-Term Care   45% 50% 57%
         
Total Cases Including Suspected   2927 2681 1298
Total Confirmed Cases   2716 2538 1206
Categories
Data Update

Massachusetts Data Update November 29, 2020

Well, I was wrong. I thought we’d have to wait for about another week to potentially see higher test positivity rates – at the last update four days ago, it appeared rates were headed down coming into the Thanksgiving holiday. But they bottomed last Monday, and have spiked significantly since then. This does not bode well for the coming weeks. (One note: since testing rates are based on the day the tests are performed rather than reported, they change as new test results come in and the dashboard updated. My November 25 update reported the 7 day newly tested positivity rate as 9.3% using data through November 24.   The 7 day rate for November 24th is now 9.9%).

Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics
7 Day  Trailing Average
November 29, 2020
         
Testing Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals)   12.5% 10.0% 6.7%
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected)   13.5% 10.5% 7.1%
         
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests)   3.8% 3.3% 2.0%
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested)   12.5% 10.0% 6.7%
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers)   0.7% 0.7% 0.4%
Percentage Repeat Testers   73.7% 71.7% 75.1%
         
Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed)   0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed)   5.4% 5.0% 3.4%
Percentage Higher Ed Testers   31.4% 36.6% 43.7%
         
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week)   26,041 21,756 16,908
Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   33,704 31,260 30,514
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   92,007 79,534 68,335

 

In fact, every positivity rate is higher or the same as it was a week ago, with the exception of the higher education rate, which dropped slightly. However, the percentage of tests associated with higher education fell to about 31% from close to 45% four weeks ago – I’d expect the higher education testing percentages to remain at these levels or drop lower through at least the end of the year as college students begin to return home from fall classes. Since higher education has had the lowest positivity rate among the reported categories in Table 1, this will put upward pressure on the all test positivity rate and the repeat tester positivity rate as the testing mix changes.  The repeat tester positivity rate is at its highest level in over three months.

 

Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 29, 2020
         
Hospitalization Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Confirmed  Patients Hospitalized   985 872 407
Confirmed  Patients in ICU   214 176 81
Confirmed  Patients Intubed   105 77 43
         
New Confirmed Admissions (24-Nov)   125 105 50
Net New Confirmed Patients   27 22 11
Net New ICU Patients   7 5 1
Net New Intubated Patients   3 3 1
         
 Percent ICU / Hospitalized   22% 20% 20%
 Percent Intubated / ICU   49% 44% 53%

 

There had been a temporarily lull in the rate of increase in hospitalized patients; that is now over.  There have been over 1000 covid patients in Massachusetts hospitals for the past tow days, and the 7 day average is inching closer to 1000.  The average number of new admissions for the week ending November 24 is almost 20% higher than the previous week.  ICU and intubated patient averages have continued to rise as well – the 7 day average of number of intubated patients increased more than 35% week over week.

 

Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 29, 2020
         
Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Total Deaths Including Suspected   29 26 21
Total  Deaths Confirmed Only   29 26 21
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases)   14 12 12
Percent from Long-Term Care   47% 44% 57%
         
Total Cases Including Suspected   2620 2657 1308
Total Confirmed Cases   2479 2501 1220

 

The average number of cases may be leveling off, but it is a bit too soon to tell if this is just a reporting artifact from Thanksgiving.  Given the higher positivity rates from Table 1, I’d guess this is just a lull. Deaths, as a lagging indicator, are continuing to tick up.

 

Categories
Data Update

Massachusetts Data Update November 25, 2020

Happy Thanksgiving.  Apparently, there were technical glitches that delayed yesterday’s dashboard report, and it covers a 30 hour period, rather than 24 hour period.  Take that with a grain of salt as the number of reported confirmed cases yesterday hit a pandemic record, besting the prior record on April 23rd.  Of course, there is significantly more testing now  (more than seven times as much).

 

Table 1: Massachusetts Testing Statistics
7 Day  Trailing Average
November 25, 2020
         
Testing Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Test Positivity Rate (Individuals)   9.3% 11.1% 6.6%
Test Positivity Rate (Include Suspected)   10.0% 11.8% 7.0%
         
Test Positivity Rate (All Tests)   3.0% 3.5% 1.9%
Test Positivity Rate (Newly Tested)   9.3% 11.1% 6.6%
Test Positivity Rate (Repeat Testers)   0.7% 0.6% 0.4%
Percentage Repeat Testers   73.1% 72.4% 75.3%
         
Test Positivity Rate (Higher Ed)   0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Test Positivity Rate (Non Higher Ed)   4.6% 5.5% 3.4%
Percentage Higher Ed Testers   37.3% 38.2% 44.6%
         
Newly Tested (Lagged 1 Week)   22,970 20,781 16,450
Higher Ed Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   31,744 32,376 31,847
All Tests (Lagged 1 Week)   83,205 79,623 68,389

 

Despite that apparently bad news, most testing positivity rates have been level or moving down the past few days – a definitely positive sign that may come to an end after Thanksgiving.  The 7 day average positivity rate for newly tested individuals (9.3%), the overall positivity rate (3.0%), the higher education positivity rate (0.3%), and the rate outside higher education (4.6%) all hit their lowest levels in over two weeks.  Only the rate for repeat testers (0.7%) edged up. 

The overall number of tests and the number of new individuals tested are at their highest levels ever, which at least partly explains the increased number of cases even with lower positivity rates.

 

Table 2: Massachusetts Hospitalization Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 25, 2020
         
Hospitalization Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Confirmed  Patients Hospitalized   918 756 375
Confirmed  Patients in ICU   194 158 79
Confirmed  Patients Intubed   89 71 37
         
New Confirmed Admissions (17-Nov)   105 80 41
Net New Confirmed Patients   8 32 6
Net New ICU Patients   5 3 2
Net New Intubated Patients   5 0 2
         
 Percent ICU / Hospitalized   21% 21% 21%
 Percent Intubated / ICU   46% 45% 47%

 

The number of hospitalized covid patients is also increasing, of course, but the rate of increase appears to be slowing, as the 7 day average of net new hospitalized patients dropped from 32 one week ago to 8, more in line with the increases from four weeks ago.  Unfortunately, patients are being admitted to the ICU and intubated at a faster clip than one week ago.   Both these counts hit their highest levels in the fall surge on November 24th.

 

Table 3: Massachusetts Reported Case and Death Statistics
7 Day Trailing Average
November 25, 2020
         
Statistic   Current 7 Days Ago 4 Weeks Ago
         
Total Deaths Including Suspected   28 27 21
Total  Deaths Confirmed Only   28 26 20
Deaths in Long-Term Facilities (All Cases)   14 15 10
Percent from Long-Term Care   50% 57% 47%
         
Total Cases Including Suspected   2681 2618 1154
Total Confirmed Cases   2538 2435 1080

 

The 7 day average of cases continues to increase, but at a slower rate than previously (up a bit more than 4% compared to a week ago), reflecting the decreasing positivity rates among newly tested individuals.  The impact of the 30 hour reporting window should be seen in Friday’s report (no report today). Deaths are continuing to edge up slowly, even as the percentage of deaths in long-term care facilities is lower than it had been through much of the pandemic.